In 2015 the recovery of the Italian economy will gain momentum, with the GDP which will score points at the end of the year a growth of 0,7%. In addition to consumption, the investments (+0,4% this year, followed by increases of more than 3% in both 2016 and 2017), while the Jobs act will boost theoccupation: if the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 12,58% (held back by the growth of the job offer), in 2015 there will still be 110 more employed. Meanwhile, the ECB's quantitative easing will help reduce the interest expense of our country from 4,4 to 4,2% by 2016. This is the picture that emerges from the forecast report presented this morning in Bologna by Promethea, which previously estimated GDP growth of no more than half a percentage point for this year. On the subject of government bonds, the analyst firm now sees the 10-year Btp/Bund spread falling below 100 basis points in autumn 2015 and then remaining at 90, while the yield on the 10-year bond is expected at 1,3. 2015% at the end of XNUMX.
In detail, on the front of the investments, “the downward correction in the construction sector is expected to continue for a few more quarters – reads the analysis -. The recovery should materialize towards the end of the current year and proceed over the next two with a relative graduality driven by the non-residential component which would also benefit from the plan developed by the European Commission”.
As regards the world of work, on the other hand, "only if the recovery starts with sufficient vigor and positively influences the expectations of companies - writes Prometeia - will the existing incentives be able to decisively shift hiring towards permanent employee contracts and truly reduce the high degree of segmentation which is one of the most negative features of our labor market”.
Furthermore, "as there is still a very high degree of uncertainty regarding the implementation of the legislation - continues the report -, Prometeia continues to predict that the strength of the recovery in labor demand will be modest. Starting next year, the growth in employment may become more substantial and regular, in the order of 45/50 thousand work units per quarter, but the reabsorption of unemployment will in any case take place slowly. Against the million and 600 thousand work units (970 thousand employed) lost since 2007, in the next three years much fewer will be able to be recovered, so that unemployment will drop from the current 3.4 million to 2.9 million at the end of 2017, the 11.3 per cent of the labor force”.
