BANKS STILL UNDER PRESSURE, THE MPS INCREASE AT THE END OF THE MONTH
As was easy to predict, yesterday's session was decidedly negative for bank stocks. In Milan as on Wall Street where the S&P index has reached its lowest level in the last two months. Bankers were among the worst performers everywhere, with the S&P Financial Sector index down 1,1%. On the Milanese market, Ubi Banca was particularly sacrificed, which yesterday launched a capital increase of one billion euro and lost 4,01% to 4,598. The closing price on Friday 3 June, equal to 5,115 euros, was adjusted to 4,79 euros. The initial price of the rights had been set at 0,3151 but left 5,27% on the ground at 0,299 euros. Not exactly a brilliant result but it could have been worse. Fifteen days ago, on the occasion of the launch of the 5 billion capital increase of Intesa San Paolo, the rights had suffered a debacle, losing more than 12% on the first day against a share performance similar to yesterday's Ubi . In that case the arbitrage that took place yesterday did not start, which saw the operators prefer the title to the right. Equita sim analysts cut the target price on Ubi Banca from 6,7 euros to 5,6 euros, following the launch of the capital increase, confirming the hold opinion. Banca Akros is on the same wavelength, which reduced the target price from 5,9 euro to 5,5 euro, confirming the indication to reduce the exposure of the security in the portfolio. Still on the subject of banks close to capital operations, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, after a very heavy week, closed with yet another drop of 0,82% to 0,7885 euros. Yesterday the shareholders' meeting met and approved the 2,47 billion euro capital increase which should start by the end of the month. In the meeting, the top management of the Tuscan institute anticipated that the operating trend in the second quarter will be in line with that of the first three months. To complete the picture, the heavy declines of Intesa San Paolo and Unicredit, in the order of 2,8%, decimal plus decimal minus. Among the institutions most active in asset management, Azimut also lost a lot, 2,72%, confirming the horrible period for credit securities.
Freshmen, the bad year of Piazza Affari, zero titles in six months
In February it was the pharmaceutical company Philogen that renounced its listing on the Stock Exchange. In May it had happened again: Rhiag, a company active in the distribution of car components, had changed its mind: it would no longer land in Piazza Affari. Yesterday it happened to Moncler which preferred to sell to private individuals and canceled the roadshow that would have taken it to the stock exchange in the middle of the month. Everything was ready for listing. But in the end the company known for its down jackets, based in Grenoble, reached an agreement with the Eurazeo investment fund which will take 45% of the capital in exchange for 418 million euros. Ultimately, no freshman landed on the Stock Exchange during 2011, almost a spell. In all cases, the announcement was made in the Cesarini area, for the first two even in the last days of the public offering. Philogen was due to debut on the stock exchange on February 18. But Bayer, which accounts for 90% of revenues, suddenly cut orders and the listing on the stock market was cancelled. In Rhiag's case, the lukewarm reception from investors blew everything away. At the prices proposed, institutional investors were unwilling to subscribe for shares. The Italian market remains asphyxiated, having recorded 7 listings and 31 delistings in the last thousand days, and above all no freshmen active in this first half of 2011, while in America the IPO boom of the new Stars and Stripes web stars shows no sign of stop. After Linkedin, which flew by 109% on the first day on Wall Street, it's the turn of Groupon.
The official reason is linked to the storm that has recently hit the European Stock Exchanges: for many directors, the adverse conditions of the financial markets do not allow for an adequate valuation of the companies. In fact, in just over a month, Piazza Affari lost almost 9%, the fault of the Greek crisis and, perhaps, also of the downgrade on the prospects of the Italian rating decided by Standard & Poor's. And in this context it is not easy to go public, especially for medium-sized companies. Speaking with investors, however, it becomes clear that the problem is not only this, but the cost factor also plays a role. “To list an 80 million company in Italy, the costs are 8%, crazy!” Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti noted in April. In the last two years, companies with a market capitalization of around 100 billion have spent an average of around 2 million. Numbers that are not insignificant, and in any case aligned with European standards, but the problem of Italian companies is their small size, and the fixed costs for a placement have a heavy impact. There has been discussion recently about whether to transfer listing powers to Consob, but any such move would not resolve the situation. Ferragamo remains on the launch pad and could arrive in Piazza Affari in July, but the appeal of the price list is in sharp decline. The markets are going through troubled phases and newcomers are feeling the effects. Moreover, in the last five years, out of sixty placements on the Milanese list, more than half are well below 50% of the initial value. Some companies were overvalued, but in general small cap stocks suffer more than blue chips in difficult times. While waiting for better times, Piazza Affari continues to have a capitalization of less than 30% of GDP, a level closer to emerging countries than to European nations.
SOME POSITIVE SIGNALS FROM ASIAN MARKETS TODAY
Fourth consecutive session lower for US markets with the S&P falling to the levels of March 18, but there are signs of reaction in Asian markets and today's session could mark a first rebound after last week's prolonged signs of weakness. The Nikkei index remained flat in the first part of the session but then put a plus sign ahead of it and operators expect it to remain positive also thanks to the decidedly attractive levels reached by prices and able to attract buying currents above all from abroad. In short, the Nikkei below 9.400 points generally exerts a strong attraction on institutional investors. Someone, precisely on the basis of current prices, is also optimistic for the next sessions and points out that around 65 of Japanese shares are traded at levels equal to or lower than book value, while S&P 500 stocks are listed at around 2,1 times the book value. Shanghai was also positive in the middle of the session, which was closed yesterday for holidays, and Seoul, with Hong Kong slightly down.
