Happy 2017, "year of contradictions", according to Gregorio De Felice, chief economist of Banca Intesa, which promises volatility, risks but also good opportunities for those who know how to act outside the box. Hopefully in this setting Piazza Affari can do better is in the past year, when the final performance (-10,2%) was among the worst, ahead only of Shanghai (-14,6% in euro) and peripheral markets such as Portugal and Denmark (but also Kenya and Bosnia and Herzegovina). Much will depend on the big trends, oil and the dollar in the lead, but also on the banking system's ability to dismiss the crisis of Italian institutions as quickly as possible. Already today, however, the first financial tests of 2017, the year one of the Trump era, are scheduled.
From this morning they become operational oil production cuts agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Oman announced to customers on Friday that it will reduce deliveries by 5 percent from March. During 2016, even before the November agreement was signed, Brent prices rose by 52% (the WTI +48%). The European Stoxx index of the Oil sector gained 22% and Eni ends the year with a positive performance of 12%.
Wall Street will try to cancel the fresh and uncomfortable tradition of January: both in 2014 and in the following two years, the first month of the year closed in the red by at least 3%. In 2016, above all, the US stock market lost 10% on the wave of fears of the collapse of the Chinese economy and an unwelcome rise in American rates.
Even 2017 could open with a note of uncertainty: many operators, in fact, postponed profit-taking after an excellent December (+13,6%) to benefit from the new rules on capital gains for the new year which could be issued by Donald Trump immediately after taking office White on January 20th. However, the New York indices open the year on record levels: despite not being able to exceed 20 thousand, the Dow Jones ends up at an all-time high with a rise of 13,7% in dollars, which becomes +16,9% in euros . The gain of the S&P500 is +9,8% in dollars and +13% in euros.
CHINA TIGHTENS ON THE CURRENCY, THE YUAN SLIDES TO 7 ON THE DOLLAR
This time, unlike twelve months ago, China does not raise immediate concerns. But tomorrow, when business resumes in Hong Kong and Shanghai (closed today like Tokyo), it's a field day for the yuan. The authorities have announced a tightening on currency purchases. The laws provide for an annual maximum of 50 thousand dollars per family and it is possible that when the markets reopen there will be a run on the banks for fear that Beijing wants to tighten the rules. On Friday the exchange rate, set at 6,95 against the US currency, came one step away from the psychological threshold of 7 yuan to the dollar.
The first macro data of 2017 are encouraging: the GDP growth rate rose by 7% in December; the manufacturing PMI scores 51,4 points (data above 50 indicate growth), the price index also improves and inflation picks up again. The Tokyo Stock Exchange closes 2016 with a parity result in yen, which becomes +6,3% in euro.
LESS NPL, BANCO BPM'S FIRST MISSION
It will be a year of high tension for the Bel Paese. This is also the opinion of Clemenes Fuest, president of Ifo, the German institute which takes care of the confidence index: in an interview with Tagesspiel, the economist argues that at this rate it is inevitable that Italians, stressed by the crisis, ask for an exit from the euro, unless a demanding intervention plan is launched, which German voters will never accept.
In this depressed climate, which is weighed down by the drama of Monte Paschi, Banco Bpm makes its debut this morning in Piazza Affari, the third Italian bank born from the merger between Banca Popolare di Milano (-60% in the past year) and Banco Popolare (-75%). The new institute boasts a capitalization of 3,5 billion, 4 million customers and a network of 2.500 branches for deposits close to 120 billion (8% of the total). It was not an easy run-in for the institute, preceded by violent reductions in the price list and by the downgrading of Fitch. Soon there will be the verification of the EU Supervision on the institution's credits. Furthermore, a unit dedicated to the management and recovery of non-performing loans is about to be launched with the aim of bringing the coverage ratio from 57 to 59%.
BREMBO RETURNS IN THE MAIN BASKET, JUVE IN THE FTSE MEDIUM CAP
The debut of the new bank has forced a revision of the FtseMib basket. The merger in fact frees up a place in the list of 40 blue chips that will be occupied by Brembo. In the medium cap list, the place of the motor company will be taken over this morning by Juventus.
The ECB has also imposed a new postponement on the purchase by Ubi (-57% in the year) of good banks: first a new horizon will be needed among investors who last year showed interest in non-performing loans of the four banks under resolution.
Meanwhile, once the purchase of MPS's non-performing loans by the Atlante fund has waned, the hypothesis of a bad bank is once again topical, perhaps open to the NPLs of other banks. An MPS bond will be issued as early as January, now back in the public sphere.
MEDIASET HUNTING FOR ALLIES, THE AUTONOMOUS CAR FROM FCA ARRIVES
Several factors support the forecasts of a possible rally at the beginning of 2017:
a) The corporate battles, starting with Mediaset-Vivendi, which has now entered the trench warfare phase. A public offer by Viendi seems very unlikely, not so the request for a meeting to be able to enter the board. Meanwhile, Fininvest counts the possible allies to reach 51%.
b) The next discussion on the Parmalat Lactalis takeover bid and the Amber Capital fund.
Spotlights also on Fiat Chrysler which tomorrow will be on show for the first time at CES, the consumer electronics show in Las Vegas. For the occasion, the hybrid version of the Chrysler Pacifica minivan could be presented, the basis on which Google has assembled the self-driving model which within the year will constitute the car sharing fleet that Way mo, the new Google-Alphabet company dedicated to car of the future will be launched in 100 US cities. But it will also be an opportunity to present the new version of Uconnect, the infotainment system developed by Magneti Marelli, the subsidiary which, once the hypothesis of a sale to Samsung waned, could be the subject of a split similar to that carried out in year ago on the Ferrari stock.
PIAZZA AFFARI OPENS WITH 387 COMPANIES (AND 14 IPOs)
The numbers with which Piazza Affari presents itself for a year of possible recovery are not all negative, favored by the persistence of low European rates, by the weakness of the euro against the dollar and by the low exposure of the large operators on the Italian Stock Exchange. During 2016, there were 20 new admissions, of which 14 were IPOs, funding for a total of 1,4 billion euro and an overall capitalization of listed companies of 524,9 billion (31,8% of GDP).
At the end of the year, there were 387 listed companies, of which 244 on the MTA market (of which 71 on the Star market), 66 on the Global Equity Market and 77 on Aim Italia. With regard to IPOs, three went to the MTA (Technogym, Coima RES and Enav) and 11 to Aim Italia. In addition to the 14 IPOs, the admissions of Ferrari and Italgas to the Stock Exchange are added.
