The stock exchanges are betting on Mario Draghi's intervention of 1,1 trillion euros. Today the Wall Street Journal, quoting well-informed sources, anticipated that one of the proposals on the Eurotower executive table at tomorrow's meeting will be the purchase of bonds for 50 billion euros per month until the end of 2016. which means a figure of 1,1 trillion against initial indications of 500 billion. Of course, the outcome will depend a lot on the details, including the decision on how national risks will be shared.
European markets close in positive territory: Milano salt of 1,64%, Paris of 0,87%, London +1,63% and Frankfurt +0,41%. The spread Btp-Bund closes down by 120 basis points.
In the background also remains the wait for the Greek vote of January 25th for the election of the new prime minister. Meanwhile, Portugal plans to repay early maturities on loans received from the International Monetary Fund as part of the bailout plan.
Meanwhile, while a Davos the World Economic Forum is underway, the IMF has cut its global growth estimates despite the drop in the price of crude oil, the positive effects of which are offset by other negative aspects, as the Fund points out: "The downward revision reflects the revaluation of prospects for China, Russia, the euro area and Japan, but also the weaker activity of the major oil exporters following the drop in crude oil prices”. Italy in particular still suffers a cut in estimates: the IMF now expects growth of 0,4% in 2015 and 0,8% in 2016, half a percentage point less in both cases than previous estimates.
Upward estimates only for the US. TO Wall Street the price lists continue to rise. The Dow Jones rose by 0,24%, the S&P500 by 0,62%, the Nasdaq by 0,59%. In the light of Alibaba but also other technological ones such as Apple and Google. IBM loses ground in the aftermath of a disappointing quarterly.
On the macroeconomic front Use US mortgage applications increased by 14,2% to 561,9 points and US new starts increased by 4,4% in December to 1,089 million units, above analysts' expectations. Building permits are down -1,9% to 1,032 million.
At closing unchanged the Petroleum Wti after a rally that pushed oil stocks such as Chevron and Exoon Mobil. However, the drop in crude oil prices has already left some repercussions. The International Monetary Fund has found that the Middle East's major crude-exporting countries could post export losses of $300 billion this year even if ample liquidity cushions allow these nations to absorb much of the impact on their economies from the collapse in oil prices. On the Fund, however, it cut the growth estimates for 2015 to 3,4% (-1,1%) for the six member countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates united).
At Piazza Affari they run the Popular after the reform revolution announced yesterday by the government. Popular bank salt of 9,83%. Among other things, today Consob has announced that Norges Bank has risen to 2,033% of the capital. At the same time, the Norwegian central bank also reduced its stake in bpm: after taking it to 2,011% last January 15th, the share dropped to 1,925% the following day. Bpm itself is in the sprint (+3,61%), a bank that has been "blocked" for some time due to internal and governance problems.
La Bank of Italy will have to fix the implementation provisions of the new article 29 of the Tub, which according to the text of the decree approved yesterday by the government limits the assets of a cooperative bank to 8 billion and requires anyone who exceeds this threshold to transform into a joint stock company, under penalty of liquidation or revocation of the banking licence. Once these provisions enter into force, the countdown will start: the banks will have 18 months to adapt.
Highlights the oil with Saipem which rises by 6,61% and Eni by 3,5%. Well too Tod’s, +4,44%. Down above the percentage point on the Ftse Mib A2A (-3,5%), Yoox (-2,47%), Buzzi Unicem (-1,24%) And Gtech (-1,01%).
