Another hot week is announced right from the start, forbidden to the faint of heart. The first emotions come from Beijing: the yuan has achieved the most robust rise since the summer of 2005 on the wave of the central bank's declarations. In an interview with the authoritative Caixin, the governor of the Chinese central institute, Zhou Xiaochuan, said that for Beijing there are no reasons why the weakening of the yuan should continue. In short, China intends to avoid war between currencies, especially against the yen, thus avoiding, at least for now, new collapses. In the wake of the banker's words this morning, the yuan rose by 0,9%, while the fixing rebounded to its highest level since 5 January. Shanghai closed slightly down at -0,63%, but Hong Kong recorded +3%.
EUROPEAN EXCHANGES ON THE RISE
By mid-morning, Piazza Affari gained more than 3% and regained 17.000 points, after the Ftse Mib index had lost 23% since the beginning of the year. The other European lists also rose: mid-morning London +1,8%, Frankfurt +2,5%, Paris above 3%. Milan benefits from the usual driving force of the banks, in great recovery after the debacle of the last few weeks. The list is commanded, with earnings between 6 and 8%, by Unipol, Banco Popolare, Mps, Bper and Bpm. On the negative side, only Italcementi and Tenaris lost anything in the Ftse Mib basket by mid-morning.
JAPAN'S GDP SLASH: 1,4%. BUT IT'S BAG IT'S BOOM
Great turmoil in Tokyo: the economy worsens, but the stock market rebounds by 7,16%. The 2015 GDP figures were released this morning: -1,4%, a drop much higher than forecasts, down to pessimism. The market, returning from a bad week (-11%) however reacted with a sharp increase: operators take for granted the short arrival of a package of measures, not only monetary, to relaunch Abenomics. Positive ground for the other Asian markets, on the wave of the positive closure of Wall Street on Friday evening. Gold is down to $1220 (-1,4%). WTI Oil is down 0,5% to $29,3, up 12,4% on Friday. Euro retreating against the dollar to 1,122 against the dollar.
DRAGHI ANTICIPATE THE LINES OF THE NEW QE
Today's most important appointment will be the hearing of Mario Draghi in the European Parliament, the right occasion to relaunch the expansive policy of the Central Bank and thus counteract the centrifugal forces that threaten the Eurozone.
The banker will not only have to confirm the prospect of a further easing in the cost of money, but also reaffirm his decision to counter the centrifugal tendencies threatening the Eurozone, confirmed by price tensions: the 0,26-year German Bund slipped to new lows at yield of XNUMX%.
At the other extreme, the bond yield of Portugal, which decided to launch a financial without waiting for the go-ahead from Brussels, jumped Friday morning to a maximum of 4,6% before closing at 4%, however on higher levels since May 2012, before the "whatever it takes" launched by Draghi in defense of the euro.
The BTP closed at 1,64%, marginally recovering from the week's peak (1,71%). The outcome of the German auction on Thursday 17 will be important, when 5 billion XNUMX-year bonds will be offered.
THE BPM- POPULAR WEDDING HAS STARTED
Spotlights on the marriage announced between Banco Popolare (+11% on Friday) and Pop.Milano (+8%), the first positive result of the dramatic season of credit reforms. The announcement of the operation, according to the Veronese CEO Pier Francesco Saviotti, could arrive next weekend. “We are working to close, it still takes some time, but I am confident,” the banker said.
But there are the last obstacles: the EU authorities have raised doubts about governance since the biblical times (three years) requested by the Bpm. However, the transaction will not require a capital increase. A near par merger between the two banks is expected. Banco Popolare is worth about 2,56 billion euros against 2,74 billion of B. Pop. Milan.
SAIPEM, TESTS OF RECOVERY AFTER THE RISE OF THE TSUNAMI
Saipem is starting to archive a capital increase carried out under a bad star. This morning the unopted rights of the operation which saw the subscription of 87,8% of the new shares for a total amount of 3,073 billion will be re-offered. In the event the new appeal to shareholders is deserted, the guarantee banking consortium will thus have to load the remaining shares for a total value of 427 million, to complete the expected collection of 3,5 billion.
Tenaris is under the spotlight (+7,9%) after a World Bank jury, in the context of an international arbitration, ordered Venezuela to repay 172,8 million dollars to the Italian-Argentine company, world leader in pipes for the oil industry. The decision is linked to the nationalization of the Matesi Materials Siderurgicos division decided by the Venezuelan government, at the time led by President Hugo Chavez.
TELECOM, PLAN READY: BRAZIL, INWIT AND METROWEB ON THE AGENDA
The accounts of Telecom Italia are in the spotlight. Today the Board examines the new industrial plan for 2018 together with the results for the fourth quarter and for the whole of 2015, which will be presented to the financial community tomorrow in London. The data, according to the analysis by Equita Sim, should signal the stabilization of the mobile sector compared to the 1,5% drop in the previous three months, as well as a slight worsening of the wireline trend after the 2,7% drop in the third quarter. With reference to the business plan, analysts expect a stabilization of domestic Ebitda starting this year with slight growth thereafter. But an increase in domestic capex to over 11 billion euros is expected, regardless of the development or otherwise of the joint-venture with Metroweb.
