The new guidance from Terna for 2015 comes at the last minute of the long presentation of business plan 2015-19. The move by Matteo del Fante, Managing Director of the group, to keep the attention of analysts alive in London gets its effect. So here are the lines for this year: revenues for the first time above 2 billion (2,005 to be exact), Ebitda at 1,51 billion (against 1,491 billion last year), investments down from 1,1 billion in 2014 to 1 billion and Rab rate (the Regulated asset base recognized by the Energy Authority for the transport of electricity on the grid) of 12,3 billion. Dividend of 20 cents confirmed.
Terna introduces itself to investors with the new management (the president Catia Bastioli is also in London) after the changing of the guard last summer and promises investments of 3,9 billion over 5 years (against the 3,6 billion of the previous plan) but with an impact lower on the tariff Rab and on the net debt. “We have modernized the Italian economy. We have filled the infrastructural gap in the electricity grid with significant savings for the system - Matteo Del Fante begins looking back - with a return to shareholders that exceeds 300%. Terna's focus and approach are unchanged, we will remain prudent, aiming for sustainable and attractive returns for shareholders. However, we believe that there are further possible improvements on the unregulated and on the acquisition of the railway network”.
Looking at the future, 3,2 billion investments they will be built on the national electricity grid (down by 400 million on the previous plan) as part of the ten-year national plan to which Terna is committed. 80% of these investments will be used for the development of new infrastructures and technologies. To this figure will be added third-party investments (the so-called "energy-intensive" companies as part of the interconnector plan) for over 400 million as well as EU funding for a total of 300 million euros, both elements which will have no impact on the electricity tariff and on the debt of the Company, guaranteed the management. The challenges.
“We want to improve the cost discipline strategy, making agreements with private individuals and boosting profits from new non-regulated activities,” continues Del Fante. The new plan coincides with the new regulatory period, under discussion with the Authority and which will start in 2016. Terna positively evaluates the hypothesis of extending the period from 4 to 6 years: "There are signs - states the Ad – that the regulatory framework could evolve towards a more modern system”.
To achieve its objectives, Terna relies on four pillars: in the regulated sector greater discipline of investments and expansion of the network, based on the Rab and on the contribution of third party financing; in the non-regulated sector, on energy efficiency and the interconnector; finally on the greater regulation of working capital.
Among the public interconnectionsconfirmed the Sicily-Calabria submarine connection by 2015; the Italy-France and Italy-Montenegro connections are also in pole position. The other interconnections, to be built on behalf of energy-intensive private industries under the EPC (European project management) system, therefore without direct capital injections. Here we aim for 400 million contribution. The other open chapter is the one on the acquisition of Fs transmission network (over 9.000 km of lines and over 400 stations) which is in the hands of the sector Authority for the assessment of assets. "We will only intervene afterwards - continues Del Fante - and for now therefore there is no operation in progress for us".
In the unregulated business Terna aims for a 16% revenue growth in the period (+3% in regulated assets), for the design and development of infrastructural networks for large groups such as Eni and Enel who are interested. The package also includes maintenance activities for high voltage stations and photovoltaic assets as well as the hosting of the optical fibers of telephone companies along the transmission lines. These are activities from which cumulative revenues of 400 million per plan are expected, with an Ebitda margin of 50%.
Personal. Terna aims at a redundancy incentive program for 300 older employees, to be replaced with 200 hirings of young people which will make it possible to lower the cost per employee. The plan is financed with 37 million already set aside. It will drop to 3.400 people in 2017 with 20 million savings on personnel costs and a further 10 million on external costs.
Free cash flow of 2 billion after financing 3,2 billion investments; reduction of net financial debt starting from 2018.
