The price of oil settles this morning at values not too far from yesterday's flare-ups. Brent is down by 1%, to 68,3 dollars a barrel, compared to the closing values (+14,6% to 69,02 dollars) already down sharply compared to the highs of an "historic" session in which crude oil recorded the highest variation ever with a generous 20% leap. But the alarm has certainly not subsided, even if, thanks to the putting into production of the reserve plants and the support of US strategic reserves (630 million barrels) available for the month by Donald Trump, the market should not feel too much the effects of the sudden drop in supply. Riyadh, confirming that the situation is under control, has asked the other OPEC members not to convene an extraordinary meeting and to respect the current production quotas.
THE FED'S SUMMIT AT THE START. TRUMP STILL ON THE ATTACK
However, the consequences of the drone attack on the heart of Saudi Arabia go far beyond the damage suffered by the Abqaiq plants, the most important in the world, or by the infrastructures of the Dhahran district, which handles about 70 percent of the Saudi exports. Beyond the threat of possible military reprisals, as Didier Saint-Georges, a member of Carmignac's management committee underlined, weighs "the perception of the extreme vulnerability of Riyadh's offer, an element that can only damage the confidence of the market and translate into a risk premium for consumers". In the age of computer viruses and drones, traditional defenses are of little use.
An additional factor of uncertainty that will have to be priced by central bankers, pending the evolution of other turbulent scenarios: the vote in Israel but also the prospect of an increasingly hard Brexit. The members of the Fed board will meet in a few hours, welcomed by the new utterances of Donald Trump who is already hurling new insults against the probable cut of a quarter point, too timid in his view.
PHILIP LANE (ECB): RATES MAY FALL AGAIN
Surprisingly, the doves' offensive has also hit Europe. Philip Lane, the chief economist of the ECB very close to Mario Draghi not only defended the package of measures presented last week, but added that the bank is ready to further cut the cost of money without excluding, if necessary, adopting negative rates . Lane clarified that there was broad support within the board for the move.
The news of Matteo Renzi's exit from the Pd contributes to the climate of uncertainty, in a domestic key, a novelty that introduces an element of strong uncertainty on the Btp rally, already in braking awaiting the manoeuvre.
Risk aversion is growing again, to the advantage of bonds. The most demanding IPOs are paying the price: not only that of Aramco, the Saudi crude oil giant, postponed to a later date. But also that of WeWork, the company of shared work spaces which announced that it had postponed its listing on the US Stock Exchange until the end of the year. Cola of the collapse of the interest of the operators: in January Softbank, the main shareholder, had injected new funds at a valuation of around 50 billion dollars. Today, on the contrary, investment banks do not go beyond an estimate of 15 billion dollars.
USA AND JAPAN, UNDERSTANDING ON TRADE BUT NOT ON CARS
In this context, the Asian markets mark time.
The Japanese Stock Exchange, closed yesterday, is on parity in the final session. Yesterday the White House communicated to Congress that the United States and Japan are about to sign an agreement for the partial regulation of trade - but the agreement should be limited to agricultural commodities and the management of patents on digital technologies. Thus the most delicate dossier remains outside, that of the car which has not even been touched.
The Chinese stock exchanges were also weak: Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1%, the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists lost 0,9%. Negotiations on tariffs will resume in Washington on Thursday, but both Beijing and the White House staff do not see concrete results in the short term.
The South Korean Stock Exchange is on parity.
The dollar yen exchange rate is 108,2 this morning, unchanged from yesterday. China's renminbi, at 7,088 against the dollar, weakens after three days of appreciation.
IN WALL STREET DOWN THE CRUISES, THE WEAPONS RISE
Wall Street was also in the red last night: -0,5% of the Dow Jones after eight consecutive rising sessions. S&P500 -0,3%., Nasdaq -0,28%.
Airlines and cruises are down sharply (Carnival -2,8%). Defense stocks rise: Raytheon +2,8% has been promoted by JP Morgan.
The shock caused by the oil rally pushed the markets into bonds. The 1,82-year Treasury Note trades at a yield of 1,90%, having closed last week at around XNUMX%.
Gold unchanged at 1.498 dollars an ounce, +0,7% yesterday.
THE ENERGY SECURITIES SHINE. SAIPEM +3%
On Wall Street, as in Europe, the most effervescent stocks were those of energy. At Piazza Affari Eni +2,3%, Tenaris +3%, Saipem +3%. Saras -0,3%. Soaring prices are not helping refiners. Furthermore, the blackout of the Saudi plants will not lead to a greater use of the Mediterranean facilities.
In the USA Devon Energy and Marathon Oil lead the race, both +12%. Noble Energy +9%, Chevron Corporation +3,2%.
JOHNSON CLAMS THE DOOR IN LUXEMBOURG
The shock from the drones obviously impacted the entire financial day. Piazza Affari, the most penalized in the morning, gradually moved closer to the rest of the lists. The Milan index -0,96% fell back to 21.969 points.
The other markets were also in the red: Frankfurt -0,7%; Paris -0,94%; Madrid -0,91%; Zurich -0,91%.
London -0,65%. Boris Johnson and Jean-Claude Juncker they deemed it "necessary to step up talks" on Brexit, Downing Street announced after the first meeting between the British premier and the head of the EU Commission in Luxembourg. In reality, the visit had a stormy ending. Johnson, challenged by a group of pro-EU British, deserted the meeting with the press. Luxembourg's premier, Xavier Bettel, said Johnson has not presented any new proposals.
Greek member of the ECB Council, Yannis Stournaras, said he expected Christine Lagarde to continue the current line of monetary policy: ultra-low rates and stimulus.
SPREAD TO 132 POINTS, BUSINESS PLACE LOSES ONE POINT
The Italian secondary recovered at the close, in line with the performance of the more solid paper, in line with the renewed appetite for safe-haven assets after the attacks against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and the disappointing Chinese data.
The Italian 0,84-year yield stops at +132% and the spread with the Bund is down to 0,97 basis points (-XNUMX%).
In July, however, the Italian public debt reached a new record, reaching 2.409,9 billion (23,5 billion more than in June).
In the Eurozone, Portugal should be noted, which outperformed the rest of the sector after S&P Global improved its outlook from stable to positive over the weekend, leaving its rating unchanged at 'BBB'.
BENETTON DISCHARGES CASTELLUCCI
Atlantia's via crucis continues in Piazza Affari (-7,84%). At the meeting scheduled for this afternoon, the "communications from the managing director" are on the agenda. A few words that prelude the resignation of CEO Giovanni Castellucci according to what has already been decided by the parent company Edizione Holding.
Meanwhile, the company has decided to immediately launch an audit, which will be conducted by a "leading international company", to verify the correct application of company procedures.
The decision comes after three employees of two subsidiaries of the infrastructure group were arrested on Friday, accused of allegedly falsifying reports on the safety of some viaducts, as part of an investigation parallel to the one into the collapse of the Morandi bridge in Genoa .
The group's board of directors has appointed Tiziano Ceccarini as new financial director, with effect from XNUMX October.
JUVENTUS SUFFERS, ELLIOT JOINS CNH WITH 3%
Among the worst blue chips in the Juventus list: -2,9% to 1,3970 euros. There are several reasons: the expectation of a heavy quarterly loss (and a significant increase in debt), the semi-false step in the league on the eve of the debut in the Champions League with a team decimated by injuries.
Elliot Partners announced the entry with a 3% stake in the capital of CNH Industrial (+0,25%). The fund (shareholder in Tim, Ansaldo Sts and controlling shareholder in AC Milan) aims to take advantage of the spin-off between Iveco and agricultural and earthmoving machinery.
The banks are also in the red: Unicredit -1,71%, Banco Bpm -1,28%. Bper (+0,27%) goes against the trend.
SALINI ADVANCES THANKS TO TEXAS
Positive day for Salini Impregilo, which last Friday was awarded a maxi-contract worth approximately 20 billion dollars for the design and construction of the high-speed train in Texas.
Banca Imi confirmed the buy judgment on Sesa (+3,83% to 38 euro), raising the target price to 48,3 euro from 39 euro.
