Oil price down. To say it is theOil union in the 2016 preliminary balance, presented today at the Luiss headquarters by the president of the Up Claudio Spinaci. In 2016, the price of black gold showed an average drop of 18% on 2015 and as much as 60% on 2014. During the year, the price trend was rather irregular and fluctuating, recovering only recently in follows the agreement of OPEC producers to cut production and therefore raise prices. Following the drop in prices, investments in Exploration and Production are reduced, -24% on 2015. Forecasts for 2017 indicate a price in the range between 50 and 60 dollars a barrel, even if some go as far as to hypothesize prices above 70 dollars.
As explained by Claudio Spinaci, the 2016 preliminary oil balance is "an alarm of a totally different reality from what we are told". Sources of fossil origin, in fact, "represent an indispensable element for covering the energy needs of the world, Europe and Italy", despite the alleged green revolution, given that "fossil fuels still cover 79% of the of energy and that petroleum products cover the 93% of the needs of the transport sector".
Meanwhile, Italy has collected a dividend from almost 11 billion, in terms of lower expenses, from your energy bill. The savings for consumers is a consequence of the drop in the Italian energy bill, i.e. the cost incurred by the country for supplies abroad, which, thanks to the drop in crude oil, amounted to 24 billion, with a saving of 10,9 .2015 billion on 31 (-XNUMX%).
The oil bill was also down, to its lowest since 1999, from 16,2 to 12 billion (-26%). And the energy bill for 2017, consumption being equal, should return "to 2015 levels, i.e. 33-34 billion, while the oil bill should settle at 16 billion". Consumer fuel prices, in 2016, were on average lower by almost 10 cents for petrol and around 13 for diesel, with overall savings for consumers of over 5 billion euros.
Worldwide, production continues to grow albeit at a slower pace, at 96,9 million b/d, +9 million b/d compared to pre-crisis levels. The USA remains the world's leading producer. Global demand also increased, amounting to 96,3 million b/d, +1,2 million compared to 2015.
The share of oil in meeting world energy demand remains very high, at around 30%. A level which, as mentioned, reaches 93% in the transport sector and is destined to decline extremely slowly in the future. In 2016, gross refining margins did not confirm the performance of 2015 at a global level. At a European level, the refining industry still shows excess production capacity.
National market
In 2016 in Italy the Petroleum it is once again the first source in satisfying the demand for energy, with a share of just over 36%, followed by gas, 35%, and renewables, 16%. Italian energy consumption has not changed compared to 2015, the year in which it returned to growth after 14 years of decline.
Petrol and diesel, although slightly decreasing, continue to account for the 52% of total consumption. The Italian refining capacity, equal to 87,2 million tons, however, shows an excess of production capacity. There are high levels of product exports and imports
Iraq, despite the situation of almost civil war, has once again become Italy's main supplier of crude oil, replacing Libya as its first commercial partner. In more detail, Iraq, for the first time since 1955, becomes the main supplier covering the 21% of Italian imports with over 10 million tons.
Panel discussion
The preliminary balance was followed by a round table moderated by Sissi Bellomo and animated by speeches by Giulio Sapelli, Paola Severino, Claudio Spinaci and Chicco Testa.
The intervention of the Severino, Rector of the LUISS Guido Carli University and former Minister of Justice pointed the finger at the phenomenon of fuel trafficking, which has grown rapidly in recent years: “About 20% of the market is occupied by fuel trafficking which takes resources away from the State. The estimate is one billion euros less than the Treasury deriving from these traffics, as a result of which companies see their money stolen".
According to Severino, a new and worrying phenomenon is “trafficking that fuels the financing of terrorism. A phenomenon for all to see. To counter it, common anti-money laundering regulations are needed, focusing on the effectiveness of the sanction”. A problem which, according to the president of Sorgenia Head grain, must be “faced openly. Healthy companies are launching a cry of alarm about a cancer in the system”.
Professor Sapelli, instead, recalls the need for oil in industry, diminishing the scope of the so-called "energy transition". For the professor of the University of Milan “Oil is chemistry, it is the most multiproductive and multifactorial raw material in the world. The real problem is that oil not only gives energy, but also founds the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. A new revolution is underway because green chemistry also works with petroleum".
Also for Head the transition is a false phenomenon: “How long will it last in transport? 2500 years, since we are at 93%”. The great distinction against the green economy are the incentives: “Renewable sources enjoy 12-13 billion in incentives a year. If we add up the tax revenue of 35 billion by difference. The difference between positive incentives and negative incentives is 47 billion and despite this, Italians still go with oil”.
