The oil market will begin to rebalance itself this year as the price slump will take its toll non-OPEC producers, who will be forced to reduce production by 700 barrels per day. The cartel led by Saudi Arabia claims it in its monthly report published today.
“After seven years of phenomenal growth in non-OPEC supply, often exceeding two million barrels per day – reads the document -, 2016 should see a drop in supply, because investment cuts they'll start to make themselves felt."
OPEC therefore confirms its forecasts despite the fact that in countries outside the cartel the development of new projects for over 2016 million barrels per day is expected in 2.
In particular, according to Opec, this year the United States should suffer the greatest decline in production, with forecasts of a decrease close to 400 thousand barrels per day, while the Canada (which has all projects currently at a loss), the North Sea,Latin america and some areas of theAsia.
Meanwhile, OPEC production (including reinstated Indonesia) declined by 200 kbbl/d last month to 32,2 million bpd, due to lower production in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. A level that still remains higher than expected demand for 2016, which the producing countries cartel estimates at 31,6 million barrels per day.
Opec, under the leadership of Riyadh, has chosen the politics of overproduction and the consequent reduction in prices (today Brent travels at 28 dollars a barrel and WTI at 30) to put competitors out of the market, first and foremost the US producers of shale oil and shale gas. As he explained Stefano Silvestri in an interview with FIRSTonline, the collapse of oil prices, "if on the one hand it has brought down the incomes of exporting countries, on the other it has confirmed their long-term market position".
Meanwhile, the Iranian oil ministry has ordered an increase in the country's oil production by 500 barrels a day for export. L'Iran, which they have recently been international sanctions liftedcurrently produces 2,8 million barrels per day.
Furthermore, Tehran is studying the possibility of building a refinery in Spain to find new markets and guarantee its oil exports. The plant could be built "in Algeciras", in Andalusia, Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo said in Brussels today, after welcoming the entry into force of the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Spain was "in the process of reaching an agreement for the refinery with Rosneft", the Russian oil giant, when it "had to suspend negotiations" due to the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia, added the minister, underlining that "Iranian investment can fill the void" and create jobs.
