Welcome Omicron. At least for the oil lords. The latest variant of the virus offers OPEC members a good pretext to postpone the increase in production (400 barrels per day) already scheduled for the end of the year. And so, coinciding with the start of the summit between the members of the cartel that precedes the OPEC+ meeting (including Russia) on a Thursday, oil markets today recorded a rebound of 4 percent which will not please Joe Biden who is convinced, not wrongly, that for now the price of petrol represents a mortgage on the electoral orientation of Americans. But even the president will have to agree that today's increases (Brent at a generous 72 dollars, Texas Wti just under 70 dollars) only partially compensate for the drops in November (-16/20% for the two qualities), the worst month since March 2020, year zero of the pandemic.
The drop in prices, in fact, depends to a minimum on the Glasgow effect on the consumption of hydrocarbons or other highly polluting energies. On the contrary. Under various pretexts, several countries (China in the lead) have relaunched coal mining. But the fear of a sharp slowdown in the recovery it has caused a real abyss in prices: last Friday prices fell by 10 percent, faced with the prospect of new lockdowns. Undoubtedly an excessive reaction, but in these cases the rule applies: “sell first, then ask why”.
And so today the market seems ready to implement a rebound, albeit a short one. However, the sword of Damocles of production cuts by the United States and allied countries (Japan in the lead) by 66 million barrels hangs over prices. But the cartel led by Saudi Arabia has an easy time opposing US requests with forecasts, which speak of a drop in demand for January and February, but also with the technical difficulties that hold back production in the producing countries. In short, even if a goodwill gesture from Mohammed Bin Salman (and Putin) is not excluded, it is probable that the meetings between today's and tomorrow's producers will close with a sharp no to Us requestsa.
That's what the financial operators who are rewarding energy stocks think today, even if the slowdowny of Eni (over 12 euros +3,4%) depends only in part on the trend of crude oil, as confirmed by the analysis that Berenberg dedicates to the Italian major. For the broker there are two reasons for the appeal of the group promoted to buy (target 14 euros) from hold: the launch of Plenitudand, that is, the retail and renewables business which includes gas and electricity, the business of renewables and that of recharging electric vehicles; the valorisation process Var Energy, the Norwegian subsidiary, which could lead to a billion-dollar IPO. It's not just the six-legged dog that promises satisfaction: too Royal Dutch Shell and Total Energies they enjoy the favor of investors, attracted by the high dividend. But the energy horizon is too full of unknowns to make long forecasts. Even if it's okay to try.
According to the data reported in Med & Italian Energy Report of the Srm study center (Intesa Sanpaolo), by 2050 88% of Europe's electricity mix will be guaranteed by renewables. But a profound transition as promised in Glasgow, according to Le Monde, will mean that 61% of gas and 38% of oil reserves in the Middle East will remain underground. Possible, as long as in the meantime a new model of life is imposed for that part of the planet that lives off energy exports.
