Start of high tension on the financial markets after the events of the weekend. There was no peace on oil. The crossed vetoes did not allow the producers to reach an agreement in the Doha meeting on freezing crude oil extraction at the levels of last January, in order to support the rise in prices (which fell by more than 50% in recent months). Yesterday morning, the agreement seemed within reach, then Saudi Arabia stiffened its position: no discounts in Tehran which reiterated that it did not want to freeze production before reaching export levels prior to the embargo.
Thus the first agreement between the big oil companies for 15 years is skipped. He will discuss it again at the June summit. In the meantime, it is probable that supply will continue to exceed demand by 1,5-2 million, with heavy effects on quotations. The market reaction was immediate. On Sunday evening on the Riyadh Stock Exchange, the Tadawull index finished at the day's lows with a drop of 1,5%. Crude oil prices plummeted this morning: Brent at 41,34 dollars (-4,1%), Wti at 38,49 dollars (-4,6%).
The Japanese Stock Exchange is also down sharply. In addition to the drop in energy stocks, the impact of the violent earthquake that struck the Kiushu islands also weighs on Tokyo: the index loses more than 3%, while the race for the yen restarts, traded at 107,88 against the dollar. The most affected area is the prefecture of Kumamoto, one of the strongest industrial districts, known for the production of semiconductors but where there are also plants of Toyota (-4,7%), Sony (-6%), Mitsubishi (-3,6. 3,3%) and Honda (-1,5%). Hong Kong loses one percentage point, Shanghai and Shenzhen -4,9% despite a new positive macro figure: house prices rose by XNUMX% in March, interrupting the downward streak.
Attention to the opening of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, after the vote of the Chamber in favor of the start of the impeachment procedure for Djilma Rousseff. The markets should greet with a rise the new step towards the removal of the president. During the week the real, together with the South African rand and the ruble were the best performing currencies. Now the word goes to the Senate. Brasilia police erected a steel wall yesterday to separate protesters for and against the president during voting operations.
ECB SUMMIT, GREEK QUESTION. FITCH UPDATES THE ITALY RATING
The ECB board meeting stands out on the week's agenda. Despite Wolfgang Schaeuble's protests, Mario Draghi is heading straight for Qe and low interest rates. At the press conference, the banker will have the opportunity to reaffirm his willingness to continue the fight (so far without success) to bring inflation back up, and to reaffirm the independence of the central bank. “We expect – reads a report by Goldman Sachs – that the ECB will not touch rates and that no further news on rates will emerge at the press conference”.
The Ecofin meeting on Friday in Amsterdam is also of great importance from a European point of view. On the agenda is Greece, which is being asked for another 3 billion in cuts before proceeding with new aid. Dissension remains between the Monetary Fund, which insists on the cancellation of the debt (in any case uncollectable) and Germany, which does not intend to modify the agreement reached last summer. In Italy it will be the decisive week for the elaboration of the Def. Fitch's rating update will be released on Friday, with the Stock Exchange closed.
THE CORPORATE USA GIVES THE NUMBERS
After the better-than-expected numbers of JP Morgan and Citicorp, the season of US quarterly reports is getting underway. We start today with Morgan Stanley, Ibm and Alphabet (Google). Tuesday will be the turn of Goldman Sachs, Intel and Yahoo! (the board will also review bids for control). American Express, Coca Cola, General Motors, Microsoft, Caterpillar and Mc Donald's will follow from Wednesday. The General Electric parade will close on Friday.
DIVIDEND SEASON KICKS OFF IN MILAN: 33 OVER 4%
Spotlights on Piazza Affari on the launch of the dividend campaign which this year promises to be very promising. Today, among others, Banco Popolare and Unicredit detach the coupon. Dividend examination also for Banca Mediolanum, De' Longhi, FinecoBank, Piaggio and Prysmian. To date, the FtseMib index, the one that brings together the best blue chips in Piazza Affari, has an average dividend of around 3,50%, a figure that compares, for example, with the average 2,2% distributed by the S&P500 index. But in Milan there are 33 shares able to offer a return of more than 4%.
ATLAS TAKES SHAPE, BANKS RECOVER
New hot week for the banking system. Memberships in the Atlante Fund have exceeded the threshold of 4 billion. It is not excluded that, in the end, funding will reach the ceiling of 6 billion. Too few, according to the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, who spared no irony and disbelief in the face of the system initiative. But Minister Pier Carlo Padoan cashed in on the promotion from the Monetary Fund. “The Atlante fund – said the governor Ignazio Visco – is a good piece of a wider process” which will have to deal with the issue of non-performing loans “which are around 200 billion euros, of which 80 billion set aside to cover losses. Against these 80 billion there are guarantees for 120 billion”. Non-performing loans, concluded the Governor, "are part of the non-performing loans which total 350 billion".
The banking sector, after the launch of the fund, achieved a significant rebound from the lows. Leading the race is Banco Popolare (+28,2%), followed by MontePaschi (+27,6%), Ubi (+15,5%), Banca Pop.Emilia (+14%), Banca Pop.Milano (+ 14%), Unicredit (+11,9%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+6,7%). Positive week also for insurance companies: Generali rose by 6,2%.
TODAY THE PRICE OF POP VICENZA. THE BPER-UNIPOL AXIS IS BORN
This afternoon the board of directors of Popolare di Vicenza will identify the price range of the capital increase for 1,75 billion which will be guaranteed by Unicredit. According to rumours, a price with balance values is looming, decidedly far from the 6,3 euro of the right of withdrawal, not to mention the price levels previously set by the bank: 62,5 euro in 2014, 48 euro (devalued ) in 2015. The pre-marketing surveys conducted by the members of the placement syndicate (Mediobanca, HP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Bnp Paribas and Unicredit) did not give any comforting results: according to Mediobanca Popolare Vicenza it may apply after the debut in Piazza Affari between 1,1 and 1,6 billion, less than the increase. It is easy to predict the debut of Atlante to support the operation.
Spotlights also on Bper. On Saturday, CEO Alessandro Vandelli confirmed Unipol's interest in joining the bank with a stake of between 2 and 5%. “We are already partners in Arca Vita – he added – so we are ready to reflect on the matter”. Vandelli also confirmed his interest in CariFerrara, one of the four banks saved and in a possible agreement with Creval.
SNAM COMPETING FOR THYSSENGAS
Snam is also highlighted. The company has made a bid for Thyssengas, which owns 4.200 kilometers of network in Germany. The offer of the subsidiary CDP is around 500 million, of which 150 in cash, the rest against debts.
BUSINESS CENTER +4,3% GOES TO THE RESCUE
It starts again after Piazza Affari finally reversed its trend: in the last five sessions, the FtseMib index rose by 4,3% (-0,3% on Friday). Since the beginning of the year, the performance of Piazza Affari is negative by 14,7%. The other European Stock Exchanges also moved upwards: the overall Stoxx 600 index gained 3,2% during the week (today -0,3%), reducing the loss from the beginning of the year to -6,2%. Looking at the European Stoxx indexes for the sector, in the last five days the greatest gains came from commodity stocks (12,7%), followed by banks (+8%) and insurance companies (+5,5%).
Stocks in the Automotive sector also recovered: during the week the European index gained 4,6% and among the manufacturers the best performance was Ferrari +6,5%, with Fiat Chrysler achieving a gain of 5,3% . At the bottom of the weekly performance ranking we find Telecom Italia (+0,7%) and the utilities: Enel gained only 1,2% in five sessions, Terna -0,4% and Snam -1,7%.
