The war goes on, even on the level of nerves. With no holds barred also on the field of the economy. President Use Joe Biden let it be known that, to cool the price run, it will lower oil reserves of about one million barrels per day, up to a maximum of 180 million barrels. Meanwhile, Russia is threatening to extend the list of products to be exported only in rubles. Putin receives the "unconditional" solidarity of China and India against the sanctions. But, writes the New York Times according to intelligence sources, a showdown is underway in Moscow: "We believe that Putin has been misinformed about the Russian offensive in Ukraine by the heads of the armed forces and that he has tensions with his advisers". The markets take note of that the end of hostilities is not as close as it seemed. And they are preparing to sail again on sight, on the wave of gas and oil prices.
The WTI slips to 101 dollars, futures are also up on Wall Street
The US decision to open the crude taps favors a sharp drop in oil this morning: WTI loses 6% to 101 dollars a barrel, Brent also drops pending OPEC + communications which will announce April production levels tonight .
The drop in oil prices is bringing Wall Street futures up again by about half a percentage point. Yesterday the Nasdaq lost 1,2%, the S&P500 0,6%. The futures of European openness are also positive: the Eurostoxx rises by 0,7%.
Euro recovers, worst month ever for bonds
The bond market moved little, down yesterday in adjustment after the flurry of sales of the previous days which led the most important market on the planet (23.000 billion dollars) to record the largest losses in the quarter for 40 years. The 2,33-year Treasury Note is yielding 2%, - 2,51 basis points after hitting a high of XNUMX% yesterday.
The euro dollar is stable at 1,116, on the levels seen at the beginning of March.
The contagion slows down the Chinese economy
In addition to war tensions, the difficulties of China weigh on Asian price lists, grappling with the aggressive return of Covid -19 which calls into question the effectiveness of the country's policies.
China's manufacturing PMI fell this month to 49,5 from 50,2. The services PMI came in at 48,4, up from 51,6 in February. Both are below forecasts, especially the non-manufacturing one.
The CSI 300 Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 index dropped 0,5%. In the month the decline was 7,6%, -14,3% in the quarter.
A positive quarter only for Australia
Tokyo's Nikkei loses 0,5%, March closes with a rise of 5,2% and the quarter with a drop of 3,2%. Hong Kong, down 0,8%, ends the month with a decline of 2,9%, quarter -2,9%. Seoul +0,3%, -2% in the month and -7% in the quarter.
The Australian Stock Exchange, on parity in the final session, ends both the month (+6,7%) and the quarter (+1%) in positive territory.
Gas, Germany towards plan B. Inflation at 10% if Moscow closes
Achtung! Germany does not betray the traditional prudence of the European locomotive. Berlin, followed by Austria, takes note of the Russian confirmation on the payment of the gas in rubles and gives the go-ahead for the first alarm signal on Russian gas supplies. Although Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov specified that the change in payment methods for Russian gas will take time and will not start as early as this week, Economy Minister Robert Habeck did not rule out the extreme possibility of blocking supplies. According to Volker Wieland, head of the German task force, a tightening of Moscow could lead Germany into a recession and interest rates to nearly 10 percent in the face of inflation which, from the current 6,1%, could rise to touch the double digit.
Yields still up. The spread narrows to 148 points
In this context, the spread between the Italian and German 148-year bonds decreases, in a context in which the yields of the German bond fall more than the Italian "cousin": the closing is at 0,82 basis points, -XNUMX%.
The 10-year BTP shows a rising rate of +2,14% and the Bund of the same duration +0,65%. The third tranche of the 5-year BTP (3 billion) at auction rises by 39 cents to 1,46%.
Piazza Affari holds, sharp braking by Frankfurt
Piazza Affari closed flat (-0,03%, 25.300 basis points), above all thanks to the leap in Telecom (+6,63%). Prime Minister Mario Draghi had a long phone call with Vladimir Putin.
The worst is Frankfurt (-1,46%), weighed down by inflation (+7,6% to a 40-year high) and negative forecasts. Berlin cut its 2022 growth forecast from 4,6% to 1,8% due to the war. Conversely, inflation will peak this year before falling to 3,4% in 2023, when GDP growth is expected to rebound to 3,6%. Meanwhile, in March it reached a record 7,3%.
Bank of Italy stops at N26, queen of Fintech
Bank of Italy has blocked N26, the most important German Fintech. The provision, which imposes a stop to the opening of new accounts and the sale of services to customers, is linked to cryptocurrencies: via Nazionale would have found "significant deficiencies in compliance with anti-money laundering legislation".
In Paris, the Cac40 lost 0,74%, only to go down by Renault (-3,85%). Madrid -0,71%; Amsterdam -0,17%. Outside the area of the single currency, London +0,54% is against the trend. Two heavyweights continue to support the recovery of Piazza Affari which has confirmed itself above 25 points.
Generali, Del Vecchio confirms: I'm with Caltagirone
Generali (+2%) again crosses the 20 euro threshold, reached last Monday for the first time since October 2008. It is the twelfth increase in the last fourteen sessions thanks to the rebound in speculative appeal. Intesa SanPaolo strengthened its positive opinion by raising the target price from 20,50 to 21,40 euro, the Add recommendation (increase the position) confirmed. Del Vecchio supports the Caltagirone list.
Tim/Kkr, we go on. The title +56% from the lows of March 7th
At the top of the Telecom Italia list (+6,63% to 0,3558) ahead of savings bonds (+5,32%). Thus the speculative appeal to the stock continues, rebounding by +56% from the historic lows of March 7 (but -20% since the beginning of the year). Tim asked KKR for further clarification on the terms of the offer for the entire group, setting an April 4 deadline for a response. In particular, the clarifications regarding the confirmation of the price indicated on a preliminary basis in November (0,505 euro) and whether KKR is willing to carry out a due diligence of an exclusively confirmatory nature.
Leonardo starts again, banks and Nexi braking
Leonardo is also making a strong recovery (+2,56%), now a way to focus on government-approved defense investments. Fincantieri also rose (+1,8%).
The judgments of the Single EU Resolution Committee, which affirmed that the impact of the war in Ukraine on the EU institutions of the European Union is "manageable", do not help the banks. The sector index (-2,1%) is slightly worse than the European equivalent. Most of all it loses Bpm (-3,24%). Unicredit and Intesa are also in red.
Nexi was also down (-3,22% to 10,97 euros), close to the price of 11 euros at which Deutsche Bank sold 0,27% of the capital with an accelerated bookbuilding. Weak session for Interpump (-3,87%) and Iveco Group (-4,11%). Still on the roller coaster Saipem (-2,66%), in contrast with the oil companies: Eni +2,18%, Tenaris +1,7%.
