Bitter end of the week for the price lists. Wall Street is suffering, hit not only by the increase in interest rates, but also by the risk of a blackout in the budget law, paralyzed by the clash on the wall with Mexico dear to Trump, disliked by the Democrats: the stoppage due to lack of funds will start at midnight on today, if Congress does not reach a compromise on the spending law.
Yesterday the White House refused to sign the text resulting from the agreement reached in Congress, because there is not the 5 billion dollars necessary for the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico. Reuters, speaking of the conflict between Donald Trump in Congress and the resignation of Defense Secretary John Mattis, does not hesitate to speak of chaos.
The other Stock Exchanges are also suffering as they grapple with the risk of recession, the fall of crude oil and the geopolitical threats evoked by Vladimir Putin who speaks of nuclear risks around the corner. Meanwhile, the Italian confusion is growing despite the green light from Brussels for the maneuver.
FLYING THE YEN, NEW ARRESTS OF CHINESE SPIES
In short, there are many factors of uncertainty on the eve of Christmas, sufficient to explain the search for safe havens:
The yen this morning is at its highest level in the last three and a half months, at 111,4 against the dollar. But the march of gold also continues, rising to 1.259,59 dollars an ounce.
On the other hand, Asian equity markets fell. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is down by 1,4%, that of Hong Kong by 0,3%, that of Shanghai -1%. But Tencent flies (+4,3%): Beijing has lifted its veto on the sale of electronic games.
The confrontation between the US and China is picking up again. The Justice Department tonight indicted two Chinese, accused of hacking into the computer and telematic networks of companies and government agencies of Western countries. The two would have managed to steal information by hacking into the computers of at least 45 hi-tech and technological security companies in 12 countries.
WORST THREE MONTHS SINCE 2008 FOR WALL STREET
Weak US markets. The Dow Jones lost 1,99%, the S&P 500 1,58%. The Nasdaq (-1,63%) is one step away from the recession zone which starts at -20% from the highs. 1,6%. The Vix Volatility Index jumped to February levels. The worst quarter since 2008 is about to end.
Treasury bond yields rose to 2,748% following the Fed's announcement of two hikes in 2019 compared to the three planned until September. The gap between 2 years and 9 years is reduced to XNUMX points, given that, traditionally, it indicates the arrival of the recession.
The happy note came from Nike: the title, down by 2% during the session, jumped by 7,3% after the publication of the accounts.
NEW OIL LANDSLIDE. SAIPEM SUFFERS IN MILAN
The oil landslide does not stop: Brent-type crude closed down 5% yesterday evening, this morning it traded at 54,7 dollars a barrel, on the lows of the last 17 months. Since the beginning of October, the drop is 37%.
All the oil companies down in Piazza Affari. Tenaris -3,2%, Eni -1,4%. Saipem (-3,2%) announced another 1,1 billion dollar contract, for a total of 2,45 billion in two days.
TRADE PLACE CLEARS THE EARNINGS OF THE EU'S YES
The "honeymoon" effect for the agreement with Brussels on the Maneuver is already over. The markets are looking with concern at the process of the measure, which is anything but peaceful, and at the mortgages (including the feared VAT increases in 2020/21) placed in the path of growth.
In any case, the agreement allowed for some progress on the debt market: the spread narrowed to 250 basis points (-2). The yield on ten-year BTPs falls to 2,73%, against 2,76% on the previous day.
More music for the stock market. Piazza Affari was the rear of the Eurozone. The index -1,93% at 18.576 points left the gains made in the previous session on the field on the wave of euphoria for Brussels' yes to the Maneuver.
Sales hit Frankfurt (-1,42%), Paris (-1,78%) and Madrid (-1,91%). London is better (-0,79%): the Bank of England has left the cost of money unchanged while waiting to understand what Brexit awaits the British.
Meanwhile, the first rate hike since 2011 by the Swedish central bank should be noted.
ONLY FOUR STOCKS IN POSITIVE SOIL
In Milan, only four stocks in the main basket closed with a plus sign: Recordati +1,54%, Ferragamo +1,1%, A2A +0,71% and Enel +0,47%.
On the contrary, the titles most followed by international investors pay the price. Unicredit (-5,01%) ends up under fire, the most sacrificed blue chip. Rbc cut the target price to 17 euros from 19,5 euros.
A bitter fate also for Intesa Sanpaolo (-3,67%), Ubi (-3,35%) and Banco Bpm (-2,59%).
TOWARDS THE UNIPOLBANCA/BPER WEDDING
Limit Bper damage (-1,9%). The rumors about the aggregation of the Via Emilia are back. The Unipol group (-0,37%) selected Credit Suisse as financial advisor to work on a possible integration with Bper which, as advisor, selected Citi. Meanwhile, the Modenese bank has sold a portfolio of 200 million euro of non-performing loans to MbCredit Solutions, a subsidiary of Mediobanca.
Banca Carige plunges (-11,76%). The meeting for the 400 million capital increase will be held tomorrow.
Turbulent day for managed savings: Banca Mediolanum loses 4,61%, in view of the exit from the Ftse Mib. Finecobank also sinks (-4,57%). Still in red Azimut (-2%).
Poste Italiane (-1,1%) has stopped the selection for an insurance partner in Rc Auto.
Little move Generali (-0,3%). Leonardo del Vecchio further strengthened his stake to 4% of the capital.
Telecom Italia loses almost 4% on the eve of the board meeting on Vivendi's request for a new meeting.
GREAT MANEUVERS ON OVS, GEOX STARTS AGAIN
The spotlights have turned on Ovs. The stock (+3% at the opening) accelerated upwards to close after a suspension, at 1,15 euro (+11,14%). The purchases of CEO Stefano Beraldo and the entry into the scene of Giovanni Tamburi's Tip with a 3% stake lit the fuse. Thus a typical operation for the Milanese merchant bank emerges: the purchase of a minority stake which will go alongside a manager/entrepreneur (Beraldo himself) and a club of investors. There are also rumors of an interest by Singapore's sovereign wealth fund Temasek.
Rebound from the Geox lows (+8,45%): Mediobanca Securities raised its recommendation from underperform to neutral, with the target price lowered from 1,9 to 1,3 euro.
