After years of silence and shrugs, OPEC is now coming to terms with reality. The rise of electric cars, forecasts on the future of the market and the spread of car sharing are beginning to frighten the organization of oil exporting countries which is wondering about the possible repercussions on crude oil.
Concerns that emerge from the latest edition of the World Oil Outlook 2017 containing forecasts on oil & gas published yesterday, in which it is openly recognized that, in a horizon to 2040, oil demand could decrease due to the proliferation of electric vehicles.
Going into detail, according to what can be read in the report, the pace of growth in demand will slow down after 2035, falling to 0,3 million barrels per day with a parallel contraction in oil consumption of 8,9 mbd caused by the greater engine efficiency and the diffusion of gas and electric cars.
“In the space of a few years – the report states – electric vehicles have gone from being absolutely unaffordable, impractical and not particularly beautiful to representing a viable option for a niche of consumers”. In the event that the trend continues, demand could therefore contract, also impacting on shale oil.
Not only that, according to forecasts, the sale of electric or hybrid vehicles within twenty years could reach 80 million units a year thanks also to the policies implemented at a global level. In percentage terms, this is 11,6% in 2040.
