Oil rises, the race for safe-haven assets resumes and the weak data of the Chinese economy create room for new rate cuts on the eve of the meeting of the Fed and of many other central banks, starting with Japan. Here are the main elements of a week that promises to be full of appointments also on the corporate front and on internal politics. A worthy anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers which ten years ago marked the beginning of the great crisis.
But the headlines can only concern today that the really hot situation in the Persian Gulf, after the attack with drones on two of the most important oil plants of the Saudi state company Aramco which knocked out, probably for weeks, the 5 percent of world crude oil production.
BRENT SHOTS TO 66 DOLLARS (+10%)
Brent oil is up by almost 10% to 66,1 dollars a barrel, despite the fact that, to calm the rise in prices, the US has decided to open the taps of strategic stocks. But the prospect of retaliation also weighs on the market. Iran has denied any involvement in the military action, which however appears too complex and sophisticated to be attributed solely to Yemen's Shia Houthi rebels. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has openly accused the Tehran government of organizing and carrying out the operation that put the Abqaiq plant out of action, which has the largest oil processing plant in the world and that of Khurais .
In this context, the recovery of interest in safe-haven assets and strong currencies is inevitable.
Gold gained 1% to $1.506 an ounce.
The dollar strengthened against the South Korean won at 1.184 (+0,7%), against the Indonesian rupiah (+0,5%) and against the Indian one (+0,8%).
The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar to 107,8. The euro is stable at a three-week high.
LI KEQUIANG: DIFFICULT TO GROW BEYOND 6%
Asian stock exchanges are mixed, Hong Kong's Hang Seng loses 1% after the fifteenth weekend of protests, Seoul's Kospi gains 0,5%.
The Shanghai stock market is on par. In an interview, Premier Li Kequiang argued that "it will be very difficult to maintain a growth rate of 6%). New expansionary measures are looming: Morgan Stanley expects growth of 6-6,2% for the third quarter.
The Chinese central bank has anticipated that Beijing will reduce the cost of borrowing at the end of the month, the first in a series of cuts to align with the world's major institutions. The pork crisis is taking care of loosening the credit lines. Swine fever is causing over a million victims among the pigs of the Celestial Empire with a strong impact on inflation. The effect on duties is also noticeable: Beijing has resumed buying soybeans, as Donald Trump wanted.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed today. The central bank is studying, ahead of its next meeting on September 19, a way to further cut already negative interest rates.
FED CUTS UNDERWAY, STOP THE BUOY
It is in this framework that, after the ECB meeting, the other central banks are preparing to review the policy on the cost of money.
The Federal Reserve board is expected to approve a new rate cut on Wednesday: a quarter of a point, according to forecasts, which will be followed by another of the same amount in October and a third at the beginning of 2020, perhaps not enough to appease Donald's anger Trump.
The heads of the Swiss central bank, the Bank of England and those of Norway, Brazil, Ghana and South Africa will also meet during the week.
There are many European appointments. Today Boris Johnson will have a discussion with Jean-Claude Juncker in Luxembourg, while Labor and the liberal-democratic opposition are going to the congress.
LIBRA (FACEBOOK) AND APPLE AT BARRIER
Today, the greats of the new economy and the authorities are engaged in two delicate confrontations. Libra, Facebook's virtual currency, will undergo scrutiny from international monetary authorities today. Apple, on the other hand, will face the EU court to ask for the annulment of the 14 billion fine imposed by the antitrust authorities.
ATLANTIA IN THE VIEWFINDER AT PIAZZA AFFARI
In Italy today the formation of the new executive is completed with the oath of the undersecretaries.
On the agenda, the Alitalia dossier stands out, which has now passed into the hands of the new ministers Stefano Patuanelli (Economic Development) and Paola De Micheli (Infrastructure and Transport). A new postponement to 15 October is looming for the presentation of the binding offer and the business plan. But in the meantime, after the intervention of the judiciary, the case exploded Atlantia, now engaged in a board of directors which promises to be more than dramatic.
On the macro front, the preparation of the maneuver takes center stage.
Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri, participating in Ecofin in Helsinki, stated that "a restrictive maneuver would be counterproductive", urging the implementation of an expansive budgetary policy at the continental level. But the margins, judging by the response of the EU partners, seem really slim.
Gualtieri also defined the plan for the sale of state shareholdings for 18 billion, studied by the previous executive, as "unrealistic".
ADVANCE DIVIDEND FOR STM, THREE WITCHES IN WALL STREET
On the agenda in Piazza Affari the distribution of the quarterly dividend of Stm (0,06 euro).
In the morning, the update of the inflation figure and the update of the amount of the public debt will be announced.
On Wall Street, while awaiting the expiry of the "three witches" on Friday, the most eagerly awaited appointment concerns the accounts of Netflix, grappling with the growing competition from Apple and Walt Disney whose CEO, Bob Iger, resigned from the board of streaming company now a major competitor in streaming.
