Gustavo Petro, the first left-wing president in Colombia's history, just celebrated one year as president a few days ago. And the 63-year-old former mayor of Bogotà, with Italian citizenship, does so with a balance sheet in chiaroscuro, even if in truth in recent weeks there have been more shadows than lights. Although half of the country still supports him (48% of citizens have a positive opinion, against 45% negative), Petro has so far quite fallen short of expectations, given that he has failed to get promised reforms approved, from pensions to health up to work and prisons, and that also the much-declaimed "total peace", i.e. the fight against armed violence, which should have followed the agreement with the FARC in 2016 involving other criminal groups (in particular the ELN, National Liberation Army), has actually run aground.
At the beginning of the year Petro, who has a past as an activist in the Bolivarian guerrilla (he was also arrested by the army in 1985), had announced an agreement with theELN for the end of hostilities, but the rebels had instead denied it, however granting a six-month ceasefire last June. Collected this partial victory, however, the Colombian president was subsequently overwhelmed by the scandal of his son Nicolas, accused of having received money from a drug trafficker to support his father's electoral campaign, last year: Nicolas admitted to having committed the fact, claiming, however, that the father knew nothing about it. The opposition immediately seized the opportunity to ask the Commission of Inquiry in the House of Representatives to investigate the possible involvement of the president. The members of the Commission are mostly "Petrist" (12 against 6), but it has recently been chaired by a member of the Conservative Party.
Beyond the judicial troubles, Petro's flop so far has been in political and economic management. When he came to power, the Colombia came from a period of great growth, and was coming out of the pandemic very well: in 2021, GDP growth was 10,6%, a record since 1906, which was enough not only to recover the 2019 level but also the pre-Covid trend. Even in 2022 the gross domestic product increased by 7,5%, while this year the World Bank expects a setback, with growth of only 1,1%, testifying to the crisis of almost all the Andean economies: the Perù slows down to 2,4%, the Chile it should even drop by 0,7%. However, the Colombian economy is undoubtedly the most fragile, and for this very reason it would have had reforms that Petro has so far failed to implement: inflation is one of the highest in the area, at 12,8% (May data 2023); the pandemic disrupted fiscal consolidation efforts and contributed to the loss of investment grade status with rating agencies; the current account deficit remained large, at 6,2% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Above all, the Colombian economy is still too based on raw materials and the diversification of the productive fabric has been too slow in recent decades: the high weight of capital-intensive companies has penalized job creation, which has increased the unemployment rate over 10% and above all it is making it increasingly difficult to reduce inequalities, among the highest in the whole ofLatin america. That is why, despite the good GDP figures, the overly business-friendly approach of the former president, the conservative Duque, had earned him just 20% popularity and his rejection of the elections. Petro thus represented a hope for the weakest and most marginalized groups, and for this very reason he immediately pushed through, amid controversy, a tax reform that increased taxes for the rich, with the aim of collecting 14 billion pesos to be allocated to poor and to education. On that occasion Petro had also introduced the famous sugar tax that had also been discussed in Italy, i.e. a tax on sugary drinks and ultra-processed foods, infuriating the business world.
The other promised reforms have instead remained at a standstill, or have gone by the crack of the cuff: that of work, for example, foundered in the debate in the Chamber, due to the absence of a quorum; that of the electoral system, which wanted to establish blocked lists with 50% female quotas, was rejected by the Senate; that of the health system has partially passed, causing the resignation of some ministers opposed to the project and also the departure of the more centrist parliamentary wing of the majority. Petro has been in the saddle for just a year and will need to be evaluated over a longer period of time, but the first experience of a socialist president at the helm of Colombia has not started in the best way.
