Italian fashion got off to a good start this year: the estimates of growth in turnover between January and August 2011 indicated an increase of 7,2% thanks above all to sales abroad. But the last few months have forced to reduce optimism and settle for a forecast of growth which at the end of the year should not be higher than 4%. Gregorio De Felice, however, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, who today presented the scenario of "Fashion and luxury in the current macroeconomic context" on the occasion of the conference organized in Milan by Pambianco Strategie di impresa, immediately gets his hands on it. And he adds: “The only way, therefore, is to focus more and more on foreign demand, also trying to diversify the outlet markets”.
Today theWestern Europe still represents more than 50% of Italian fashion sales abroad, but it is in the countries of the Nafta area (North America), Japan and China that demand develops at the highest rates and where Italy still has many spaces to fill. Especially for high-end products, the demand for which in emerging countries has almost doubled in recent years.
In the high quality sector, the world market share of Made in Italy in 2009 had reached 13,6%. In the period between January and July of this year, exports increased with rates between 13 and 14% not only in France, Germany and the United States, but also in Russia (in clear recovery after the years of the crisis) and above all in the Asian markets: Hong Kong +21,2% and China +28,3% both for products intended for local production chains, i.e. textiles and leathers, and for finished products.
It is for this reason, underlines De Felice, that “theraising the quality of products and the way of export on emerging markets will be the driving force for the next few years, the main option for growing and improving the profitability levels of companies”.
Yes, because it scenario that lies ahead in the months to come it's certainly not very bright: In Italy, the change in GDP, currently forecast at +0,3% (+0,6% is the change forecast for the entire Eurozone) could be marginally negative (that is, our country risks falling back into recession in 2012) and consumption will be penalized both by the drop in employment and by the reduction in disposable income due to the austerity package. Customers, according to Banca Intesa's analysis, “they will also suffer a loss of purchasing power due to the increase in direct taxes and tariffs. But, he adds, the decline in the propensity to save will limit the decline in consumption by about half a point ”.
More generally, the picture of growth in the various geographical areas, which is expected to be very uneven, will be conditioned above all by fiscal policy, ie by the corrective measures adopted and by those which predictably will still have to be adopted in the next two years. Added to this are the financial strain on the real economy, the increase in interest rates, crisis of confidence and difficult access to financial markets: a situation that will only be mitigated by the abundant supply of liquidity guaranteed by the ECB. The fact is, however, that this continuing uncertainty will lead households and businesses to postpone their spending plans.
