Greece is at risk of bankruptcy. This is the opinion of the markets, at least according to what was recorded yesterday on the Greek debt. The phenomenon, already experienced by Italy in September 2011, is called "inversion of the yield curve", and occurs when the interest rates on short-term government bonds exceed those on long-term public bonds. This is exactly what happened yesterday in Greece, which saw yields on three-year bonds reach a record 9,42% and thus exceed the 8,9% achieved by ten-year bonds. An overtaking of this type represents a sort of alarm siren, as it signals that – in the eyes of the market – default is now one step away.
What worries the financial community is the country's political instability. Conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has brought forward the first vote to elect the new President of the Republic to December 17, but at the moment he does not have the numbers: the green light to the Head of State requires a qualified majority of 180 votes out of 300 and the Executive of national unity can only count on 154 preferences.
If three consecutive votes fail (the last should take place on December 29), the government will automatically fall and Greece will be called to early general elections, which will probably take place between January 18 and early February.
Precisely the prospect of the polls terrifies investors, because at the top of the polls is Syriza, an alternative left-wing party led by Alexis Tsipras and credited with around 32% of the votes, with an advantage of between three and six percentage points over the centre-right of Nea Demokratia (a margin that would be sufficient to win the elections, but not to create a monochromatic government).
In any case, this time Greece's permanence in the euro is certain. Tsipras has clarified several times that Syriza does not question the unity of the Eurozone (“that risk ended in 2012”), but intends to ask the other formations of the European left (the Spaniards of Podemos in the lead) to convene a conference on debt to forgive part of the exposure of countries at risk.
“Greece is in a difficult situation – said the leader of the Greek opposition –, we will have tough negotiations and Angela Merkel cannot afford to speak on behalf of all 27. We will nationalize the banks, but we will work with the ECB to keep them in feet. And account holders' deposits will be guaranteed”.
As for relations with the Troika, “I will not accept any pact in the dark – clarified Tsipras -. We will set our conditions to the EU, the ECB and the IMF and if an agreement is not reached we will launch our economic plan".
Syriza's program envisages, among other things, a maxi public investment plan, the restoration of thirteenth month salaries for pensions under 700 euros, an increase in the minimum wage, an increase in the tax-free income ceiling from 5 to 12 thousand euros and free electricity for the poorest families.
