“We are faced with a wholly insufficient perspective with respect to the recovery needs of our economy and the mitigation of the serious imbalances in the labor market”. This is how Sergio De Nardis, chief economist of Nomisma, comments on the Istat estimates on Italian GDP in the second quarter of 2013.
The numbers, says the researcher, "clarify the characteristics of the current economic situation and help to define recovery expectations more clearly". The Italian cycle, reads a note, remains supported by the foreign sector and the positive evolution of exports is also affected by incoming tourism, as demonstrated by the jump in spending by non-resident citizens. A phenomenon that should also be confirmed in the third quarter. “On the contrary – underlines De Nardis – domestic demand continues to drop at an almost constant rate in the first part of 2013, while investments show a less unfavorable signal as they are an expense component linked to exports”. The weakness of household consumption remains unchanged, as they adopt "precautionary behavior induced by uncertainty and the need to replenish savings".
The future appears uncertain and many household questions are currently unanswered, for example: what will be the amount of the future service tax? will it be convenient to buy the car before the feared increase in VAT? and will the uncertain employment outlook translate into unemployment in the coming months? Doubts that discourage spending, where there was the possibility.
Therefore "the elements to qualify the recovery expectations - concludes De Nardis - are not all favourable: the support comes from abroad, but the uncertainty of the economic policy and the persistent weakness of citizens' incomes keep domestic demand low".
