The first table below could be taken as a litmus test of the unsustainability of the pension system. Indeed, without claiming absolute scientific rigor, one could identify the point at which the numerous generations of the 1960s and 1970s retired with a significant contribution period acquired at an elderly/young age, impacting themselves with the moment in which the generations of demographic decline they entered the job market in inadequate numbers compared to those who left it. Of course, the contribution of emigration is not included in the table, which will follow in the subsequent tables.
However, we know that the flows of foreign workers were able to compensate for the demographic imbalance of the natives until 2014 and that since that year the residents (Italians plus foreigners) have decreased by 1,4 million units, of which 900 thousand in the South. Also the Steering and supervisory committee (Civ) of the INPS in one of the latest social reports found that, as regards the trend in the birth rate, after the demographic boom of the 1960s there is a substantial and progressive decrease in births, which from 923.000 in 1960 are reduced to 392.598 in 2022. This while, in the same period of time, there is an increase over time in deaths, which increase from 481.000 to 713.499. With reference to the longevity index, there is a constantly growing life expectancy at birth for the time period examined, both for women and men.
Pensions between demographic decline and brain drain
In fact, in 2021 life expectancy at birth corresponds to 84,8 for women and 80,3 for men, up compared to 2011 data, 84,5 and 79,6 respectively. A similar increase is also found with reference to life expectancy at 65 and 85 years. The negative peaks in life expectancy between 2020-2021 are to be attributed as a natural consequence of theepidemiological emergency from Covid-19. At a regional level, although there are no significant differences between the Regions, the highest longevity index is found in Trentino-Alto Adige and the lowest in Campania, for both women and men. As regards migratory flows, it is possible to observe a progressive increase in emigrants with the exception of the two-year period 2020-2021 and an oscillating trend in immigrants.
Although since the second half of the 1980s Italy has been strongly characterized by the phenomenon ofemigration, the increase found in the last decade is not attributable to the migratory flows of past centuries, but is dictated by the effects of the serious economic crisis that began in 2007. It is possible to observe how this migratory flow mainly affected the population aged between between 18 and 39 years old, both for women and men. Since they are mainly young people, often graduates, the expression was coined for this migratory phenomenon “brain drain”. Even as regards immigrants, the majority of them fall into the aforementioned age group, even if their number far exceeds that of emigrants, presenting an oscillating trend. To date, Italy is the fourth country in Europe for the flow of immigrants with long-term residence permits; however, speaking of concentration in relation to population, Italy is positioned, in 2023, in twelfth place among European countries.
It is therefore a good idea to seize the opportunity offered by the Civ Report to give an effective dimension to the so-called brain drain, highlighting the gender and age characteristics over the last decade. Apart from 2021 which was obviously affected by the mobility limitations imposed by the health emergency. from 2011 to 2020 emigrations practically doubled in total, with a visible increase for both men and women, with a greater frequency for younger cohorts. It is also significant that there is no overwhelming difference between the number of men and women (both sets of a substantial increase compared to 2011.
As for the flow of immigrants it remained sustained and overall uniform. Indeed, it seems that it was not particularly affected by the most serious years of the health crisis. in essence, on average, around 250 thousand foreigners have entered our country every year.
Summing up the sociodemographic panorama of Italy, as of 31 December 2022, had 58.850.717 inhabitants, ranking it as the third largest country in the European Union by population. Specifically, the population was mainly concentrated in Northern Italy, where around 46% of the inhabitants live, compared to 20% in the Centre, around 23% in the South and 11% in the Islands. It is possible to observe how the female population is slightly higher than the male population, equal to 51,1% and 48,9% of the inhabitants respectively. 12% of the population is aged between 0 and 14 years, 63% falls into the age group between 15 and 64 years, while inhabitants over 65 represent approximately 24% of the total, highlighting a strong erosion at the base of the so-called age pyramid of the Italian population.
