Estimate of the possible financial impact of an intervention to amend the Fornero Law limited to retirement
In terms of social security, the hypotheses being discussed these days between the Lega and Cinque Stelle for the formation of the new government focus on retirement pensions, that is, those pensions that can be accessed with a minimum of credited contributions regardless of age. Now, in 2017 about 290 new direct social security pensions were paid out by INPS in the private sector alone. Of these, approximately 160 were seniority, with an average monthly amount of almost 2 euros and the new seniority retirees were on average 000 years old. Retirement pensions essentially concern men who in fact account for 61% of seniority pensioners. Women are more present in old-age retirement (71 years in 67 and 2019 years and 67 months in 3).
With these interventions, on average, old-age pensioners will access retirement at an average age of around 59 (down from 2017 in 61) and a good 8 years younger than the old age. The coverage to be guaranteed in the budget law for three years must take into account that in the third year the expenditure is approximately 20-30% higher than in the first year, while in the tenth year the annual expenditure could be higher than in 2019 by about 50-60%.
“Tabula, futuro e previdenza”, a research, study and consultancy company on pension savings directed by Stefano Patriarca, a well-known pension expert and consultant to the Prime Minister's Office, tried to do some math. Well, the cumulative expenditure over 10 years for the changes to the assumed old-age pensions would be around 50 billion for the lowest hypothesis and around 150 billion for the highest hypothesis.
