The coffers of the state are empty and only the many promises made during the electoral campaign remain. Let's talk about Fornero Law, the law that everyone wants to cancel but that so far no one has managed to change. And neither is the Economic and Financial Document that the government has just approved never talk about pension reform, much less the abolition of Fornero or 41 quota, workhorse measure of the League. And even if early retirement with 41 years of contributions, regardless of age, remains (at least in words) the government's objective to be implemented over the term, at the moment, there is no financial coverage and it is difficult there will be in the future (according to INPS estimates it would cost more than 4 billion in the first year of activation, then reaching 75 billion in 10 years).
The confirmation was also given by Riccardo Molinari, leader of the League in the Chamber: "With a few billion (available) Quota 41 can't be done". Even the Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, said that "the priorities now are the support of families and businesses". Simply put: not reform of pensions o Quota 41. However, it should be remembered that at the end of the year Quota 103, the measure introduced by the Draghi government which provides for leaving work at 62 and 41 years of contributions, will come to an end. So, what will be the strategy of the Meloni government?
Pension reform and Quota 41: what will the Meloni government do?
As mentioned, the Meloni government has put Quota 41 in the attic. The executive will therefore have to find a "bridging measure" by next autumn, on the occasion of the 2024 budget law which will be just four billion: this is the deficit margin that the executive has carved out in the Def, however binding it to the tax wedge cut.
The Minister of Labour, Marina Calderone, established an Observatory with a decree last March to monitor social security expenditure, analyze system revision policies and verify the sustainability of forms of early retirement and generational turnover that do not weigh solely on public spending . The Ministry of Labor is also looking carefully at the possibility of strengthening the mechanism of generational relay, with a greater use of part-time work for workers nearing retirement.
But autumn is around the corner, and there is no financial backing. For this reason, many speculate the extension of a year of 103 quota, as has already happened in the past for Quota 100, Quota 102 and 103 itself (which does not cancel the Fornero reform but limits itself to circumventing it by allowing an advance pension to a small category of people). Obviously the Carroccio does not like this solution, which however does not currently have an alternative to its Quota 41. But even in this case nothing is certain: because the cost of Quota 103 exceeds 2 billion in the three-year period, as much as allocated by the executive by Giorgia Meloni in her first budget law. And it risks being a fiasco, given that the pool of potential beneficiaries has been dried up by Quota 100.
How do you go into early retirement in 2023? Early exit channels
Quota 103 allows you to retire - for the whole of 2023 - with 41 years of contributions paid and 62 years of age. The allowance cannot be combined with other work income and has a ceiling (not exceeding five times the minimum, equal to approximately 2.818,65 euros). Then, once you reach retirement age, which is 67, the amount becomes full. Those who do not take advantage of the pension advance, on the other hand, can benefit from the "Maroni bonus”, the incentive for employees to remain in service with a maxi salary increase without however contributing to the calculation of the final pension.
Among the early exit channels, there is also the one that allows you to retire with 42 years and 10 months of contributory seniority (41 years and 10 months for women) regardless of age and without adjustments to the life until 2026. Workers with 41 months of effective contributions before turning 12 will then be able to continue to leave with 19 years of payments, regardless of age (similar requirements to those for the Social Bee).
Woman option it has been extended for the whole of 2023 and allows working women who have matured by the end of 2022, a registered age of at least 60 years and a seniority of contributions of at least 35, together with a further requirement. Following the changes introduced by the 2023 Budget Law, the right of option is reserved exclusively for female caregivers, female workers with a 74% reduction in working capacity, female employees or workers made redundant by companies in an economic crisis with an active discussion table at the Mise.
Also 'Social bee it has been extended for the whole of 2023. It concerns the long-term unemployed, caregivers, disabled people from 74% and heavy-duty workers. The application can also be submitted by those who have met the requirements in previous years, i.e. having reached at least 63 years of age and not already receiving a direct pension in Italy or abroad.
Pensions grappling with tight spaces in Maneuver and the inflation trap
But why aren't there the resources to finance a pension reform or at least quota 41? There pension spending has risen a lot in recent years, above all due to the effect of the costs for indexing the checks in the run-up to inflation but also due to the three-year experimentation in the past of Quota 100. The demographic decline also has an impact: fewer children, therefore less employed than to retirees, and fewer migrants to balance the strong imbalance.
From 281 billion euros in 2020 (16,9% of GDP, which was very low in the first year of the pandemic) it went to 296 billion in 2022, equal to 15,6% of GDP. In the coming years, according to the updated forecasts of the Def, the cost will increase further: +7,1% in 2023 and 2024, +3,1% in 2025 and 2026. In absolute terms we are talking about 317 billion euros this year and of 361 billion in 2026. In terms of relationship with GDP, given that more or less constant economic growth is expected: also in the following two years the expenditure-GDP ratio will remain anchored at 16,1%, while the peak, estimated at 17,4%, is forecast for 2036.
The increase will be largely due to the inflationary wave. Pensions are automatically adjusted for inflation, which peaked at the end of 2022 and will remain above 2% for at least the next two years. Between 2023 and 2025 alone, spending would have risen by 50 billion. The Meloni government has cut 10 of them, passing in the calculation from a progressive staggered system to another in much more penalizing bands.
And so the numbers also force this government to leave the Fornero rules and to have little room for manoeuvre on the social security system, while the country is struck by the scourges of inflation, rising rates, public debt, drought and war.
