Abolish the Fornero law which reformed pensions: this seems to be the trump card with which the Centre-Right aims to gain the consent of the voters. And if the M5S propose a gradual exit from Fornero over five years, the leader of the League Matteo Salvini wants everything immediately: away from Fornero in five months. The proposal was accepted at the Arcore summit on Sunday, Salvini rejoiced with a tweet but did not say where the covers would be for a cleanup that would cost the state from 140 to 350 billion euros between now and 2060.
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Cancellation of the FORNERO law in the centre-right programme: mission accomplished.#4 MarchvotoLega
- Matteo Salvini (@matteosalvinimi) 7 January 2018
The calculations, however, were made by the State Accounting Office. And according to the Accounting Office the cancellation of the Fornero law has a cost that is estimated at around 140 billion euros. But this figure rises if we consider the cumulative savings (and which would be lost) up to 2060: in this case cancel the Fornero law means giving up 350 billion euros. Not only that: the bulk of the hole would be realized in the medium term, i.e. in the decade 2020-30: in that period, the cancellation of Fornero would absorb around 17 billion euros a year, or the equivalent of 1 point of GDP with a maximum by 1,4 points in 2020, or 23,8 billion in two years. What cuts or higher taxes would cover this cost? The Centre-Right program does not specify this.
To all this, however, one consideration must be added: namely that in April-May Italy will have to face the verification of its public accounts by the EU commission and that in any case the 2019 maneuver is weighing 10 billion in cuts necessary to cancel the VAT increase which was postponed in 2018 but which reappears regularly as a safeguard clause requested by Brussels.
Exaggerated figures? Misplaced scaremongering? It does not seem. It is worth mentioning the accounts made by INPS president, Tito Boeri, in a hearing in the Chamber before the approval of the Budget Law. On that occasion Boeri had estimated at approx € 10 billion by 2019 the cost of introducing a much milder modification to Fornero, namely the introduction of the so-called share 100: a mechanism which proposed to retire from work as soon as the sum of age and career years had reached the level of 100. For example, by retiring once the 62 years old, provided i have been achieved 38 years of contributions.
The government, as we know, judged the hypothesis too onerous and had to settle for much less. But he still tried to intervene by blocking the trigger over 67 for those who carry out strenuous activities (thus making 15 categories of workers involved) and expanding the Ape social for 4 new categories of workers. (Read here all the news of the 2018 maneuver)
