As stated in mine J'accuse #1 ( http://scenarieconomici.it/jaccuse-di-paolo-savona/ ) the building engine fails to restart will not allow growth such as reabsorb unemployment, also for the overall growth of our GDP I have been pointing out for some time that consideration of the aggregate figure masks the real problem to be faced, that of Noon.
By continuing to make use of the team at economic scenarios – whom Antonio Rinaldi tells me is committed and fierce and whom I thank for his collaboration – I am presenting a new graph to support that the Italy's problem is not so much growth, how much the split of the country: the growth prospects of Center-North appear positive, while the South continues to regress.
Compared to the beginning of crisis in 2007, Centre-North lost 8-9 points percentages mentioned and the South 12-13 points. A crisis that officially begins as conjunctural, but ends up being structural, which in fact was already underway, as evidenced by the diverging trends that emerged previously. As known, I attribute this trend to having neglected the effects of North-South dualism in the hasty decision to sign the Maastricht Treaty e enter the euro immediately.
My further indictment of past and current leadership groups is their ignoring the effects of the double split witnessed by the two graphs of Economic Scenarios which I believe cannot be surpassed by one growth tout court of the European and Italian economy, already in itself insufficient to do decrease unemployment, in the three-year period that is proposed to us.
I have already insisted that, under these conditions, the averages used have no meaning because the distribution of frequencies is not normal and therefore do not represent the characteristics of the universe. We are in the typical case known as “il paradox of Trilussa's chicken”, according to which if two people have a chicken and only one eats it, the statistics record that each has eaten half of it. This is the case of European and Italian development.
I neglect the fact of who has eaten and eats European chicken, nor do I discuss why here Italian chicken is eaten (in perspective) only by the Centre-North, a problem that we will deal with on another occasion, once its existence is recognized.
It is incomprehensible that it is not perceived that the problem of the country's split is much more serious than that of the delay in overall growth, which worries the Government so much, without considering that this is correlated with the absence of growth in the South.
Therefore the territorial split is the main political problem that Rome and Brussels, as well as obviously Frankfurt, have to face. I accuse analysts and politicians of persistently denying the existence and seriousness of such a problem and instead believing that, if the North grows, the South will follow too. Ball.
If we wait for the South, through the reforms demanded by Europe, is able to throw a model export-led, which, moreover, has never worked in that area, instead of revive investments, starting from major works and construction, and also i consumption by activating the exogenous levers of development, for example by reducing taxes, the situation will worsen and, with it and because of it, the Italian average growth will remain low.
If you believe the growth in the Centre-North can more than compensate for the decrease of South aiming only at more exports, we cultivate illusions, thesis expressed in J'accuse n.1.
The evil is much deeper, because i North-South productivity gaps they are structural and, therefore, go deep and it is certainly not the bland and out-of-focus policies of the European "cohesion" ones that can eradicate them. Neglecting them, as is happening, is not a great indicator of civilization, on the contrary it is an involution on the path Italy has taken (badly) since the 50s.
The economy of the Center-North today it finds itself with prospects of production recovery at German levels because it is voluntarily "reformed"., certainly not for the policies of austerity European and for those so little austere Italian.
This area has expelled him inefficient entrepreneurs, it has unloaded the weight of their mistakes on the banks, has been more involved in foreign markets, even if it too has suffered from the construction crisis. If he hadn't the ball and chain of the tax burden e of inefficiency of the public administration it would run even faster.
It is also responsible for the weight of corruption, for not having fought against it. North, many are convinced that they also have a specification ball and chain due to the South, despite the statistics I produced with Zeno Rotondi indicate the opposite, i.e that their development benefits from that outlet market.
It may also be that they are right in saying that the it's the fault of the South, but they don't have it if they think a civilized country abandons part of its citizens to their fate, without taking into account that a serious nation is bound by the bond of solidarity. De Gasperi e Vanoni they figured it out: because they say the opposite those who declare themselves their heirs? Re-read the social contract of Rousseau in the version of Rawls (to name one), but also the ideas of Cross e Calogero on democratic liberalism and socialism, instead of running after the pipers of Hamelin-Grimm.
