Emerging countries, nouveau riche, giants of the future. Or Brics, if we only talk about the top 5 of them (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Call them what you will, they are the 25 most economically dynamic countries in the world, who have had their eyes on the press, markets, public opinion, international institutions and above all investors for years now.
By 2020, these 25 new global giants alone they will account for more than 50% of global economic activity (measured on purchasing power). This is what emerges from the quarterly research by Ernst & Young, "Rapid growth markets overview", published yesterday.
The twenty-five in question are, in addition to the magnificent five already mentioned: South Korea, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Nigeria, Ghana, Indonesia, Egypt, Malaysia, Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine, Colombia, Poland, Turkey, Chile, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Quatar and UAE. The growth of these nations has been going twice as fast since the beginning of the millennium compared to historically advanced countries: on average 5,4% per year, with forecasts of 6,2% for 2011. This data, combined with that of the population (which represents the vast majority of the planet) should lead the top 25 to centralize 2020% of global jobs by 75.
The Ernst&Young study predicts that in the next decade their growth will no longer be double but more than tripled compared to Western countries: in fact, it is estimated that it will be 3,5 times as much. But that's not all: within 9 years these new economic giants will attract 52% of the demand for cars and 38% of that for consumer products. This trend will also favor so-called "formerly rich" countries, which will therefore see their exports double from 9.580 billion dollars a year today, to a potential 17.600 billion in 2020.
But this does not mean that the "new" ones will be dependent on the "old" ones: their internal market is in fact also destined to grow, in some cases supplanting the anemic Western economies. Hoping, however, that Western economies do not fall too seriously ill, given that the exports of Brics and co. often represent more than 100% of their GDP. In the event that the debt crisis precipitates further in the Eurozone, and so does the stagnation of the US system, in fact, the growth of the twenty-five in 2013 will have to be reduced to 3,2%. But if instead Europe and the United States were to recover without problems, this growth is predicted to even touch 7%.
So, old and new, it makes no difference: we are all rooting for Europe.
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