The star of emerging countries shines a little less. According to preliminary estimates by the Intesa San Paolo Study and Research Centre, in 2013 the GDP growth of a representative sample of emerging economies slowed down to 4,7%, from 5,1% in 2012. The slowdown was more marked in most exposed to the commodity cycle, specifically Latin America, the CIS group and the Middle East.
These countries also suffered from less favorable financing conditions on the international capital markets. Furthermore, constraints of a structural nature have started to make themselves felt, such as, as the case may be, lack of infrastructure and skilled manpower, insufficient investment and lack of reforms, including delays in liberalization in strategic sectors (mining, telecommunications, energy). . These limits have therefore led to restrictions on the supply side and slowed down productivity growth.
In 2014, however, emerging economies should benefit from the further recovery of the cycle expected in the United States, the euro area and other advanced economies. Asia is expected to confirm itself as the most dynamic region, even if settling on the values of 2013 (GDP +6,5%). A substantial recovery is expected in the CIS countries (GDP from +1,2% to +2,4%), Mena (from +3,2% to +3,8%) and Central-Eastern Europe (GDP from +1,2% to +2%).
Looking ahead, further rate cuts are expected in the first months of 2014 in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. Rate hikes are instead expected in countries with currencies under pressure due to large current deficits such as India, South Africa, Brazil and Turkey.
In Turkey, growth accelerated in 2013 but is expected to slow down in 2014. The downward pressure on the currency and high inflation have forced the Turkish Central Bank to repeatedly raise key rates. At the end of January 2014, with the lira subject to strong downward pressure, an extraordinary meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee was convened, where a substantial rate hike was decided: the maximum overnight rate was raised from 7,75% to 12 %, the 7-day repo rate from 4,5% to 10%.
If the depreciation does not stop, a more substantial increase in the cost of money cannot be ruled out. The central bank itself now predicts that the 5% target rate will only be reached in mid-2015.
In Brazil, on the other hand, a recovery in imports was recorded in 2013, supported by domestic demand, while the dynamics of exports were affected by the drop in foreign demand for minerals and metals, among the key sectors (with agro-food, machinery and means of transport) of Brazilian industry. Commercial exchange in 2013 reached 482 billion dollars (+3% compared to 2012).
Exports ($242 billion, -0,2% y/y) exceeded imports ($240 billion, +7,4% y/y). Commercial exchanges were carried out mainly with Asian and American countries, in particular with China (17%), USA (13%) and Argentina (8%). Europe has supplied and bought about a quarter of the total traded. Italy ranked eighth among the largest suppliers with a share of around 3%, while it was ranked 14th among customers with less than 2%.
The Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs notes commercial and investment opportunities in the oil and energy industry, utilities, construction, tourism and machinery sectors.
