Small clash tonight during the hearing of Minister Pier Carlo Padoan in the joint Budget commissions of the House and Senate. At the beginning, a document was read according to which the Parliamentary Budget Office cannot validate the estimates indicated by the government with the update of the Def: the go-ahead will only come if the “planning budget document that the government will send to Brussels contains “different” forecasts.
However, the rejection is not binding, and Padoan reiterated the Government's position in his speech: "There is a small gap, which seems insignificant to us". So no terms like "fixing accounts, propaganda, lies", all words that Padoan firmly rejects. The parliamentary office had already provided a negative opinion after the examination of the government accounts, on 3 October last, after the doubts expressed by Bank of Italy and Istat.
During the audition Padoan confirmed the growth estimates for this year (at 0,8%) and next year, setting the GDP bar at +1% in 2017. Estimates that also come in part from the next Budget law: a maneuver with measures for 24,5 billion, of which 22,5 with effects on growth and coverage for 18,4, 0,1 billion, Padoan anticipates. According to government estimates, the social policy interventions of the next maneuver will have an effect on GDP of +3,15% and will have a total of 2017 billion available for XNUMX. In social spending, the minister explains, “ including the adjustment of minimum pensions and resources for families, human capital and contract renewals in the public sector”.
Then there is "the competitiveness package, which has a positive impact of 0,1%", added the minister. “It introduces a hyper-depreciation for investments in industry 4.0, tax credits for investments in research and development are strengthened, individual savings plans are introduced in the area of finance for growth, with effects that extend over the period 20017-2019″, explains Padoan. Another +0,2% comes from the development package, according to government estimates: "It involves greater investments in public works and the safety of school structures and roads in an anti-seismic key".
However, it will also come with the next maneuver "a further spending review and a downward revision of some expenditure items and endowment funds", says the economy minister, admitting that these measures will have a negative impact on growth by 0,2%. But then he notes that the removal of the VAT increase scheduled for January 2017, and which would lead to an increase of 0,3 percentage points, could also lead to greater growth: "We have been cautious on this item, considering the macroeconomic context in where we have been since the beginning of the crisis”.
