La fiscal peace proposed by the centre-right risks costing the state hundreds of billions of euros. To do the calculations it is the Observatory on Italian public accounts, directed by Carlo Cottarelli (candidate with the Democratic Party in the next political elections). The analysis starts from the coalition programme, in which the reference to the new amnesty is rather vague: it speaks only of "fiscal peace and 'balance and excerpt': agreement between citizens and the Treasury for the resolution of the previous one”.
Some details are contained in the League's programme: against credits of 999 billion accumulated by the Treasury up to 2020 (the data is from the Court of Auditors), Carroccio writes that only "545 billion could be fully collected, on condition that the methods are actually feasible".
Fiscal peace and balance and excerpt: what the League proposes
The League's proposal provides for two interventions:
- a new scrapping of tax bills;
- and a new "balance and excerpt".
These are measures inspired by the amnesties launched by the Conte 1 government, but this time the League would also like to extend them to businesses.
Problem #1: interest, arrears and penalties
The Observatory points out that “the total amount of 545 billion can never be fully collected”, as the Lega program states, because the total sum also includes “interest and/or late payments accrued on the debt”, which precisely the provisions of scrapping and balance and excerpt allow you not to pay.
Based on data from the previous three scrapping, by deducting arrears, interest and penalties from the installment amount, “the percentage of expected receipts on gross debt was on average 59% – continues the Observatory – In balance and excerpt, the amount potentially to be collected was even smaller (less than a sixth of gross debt).
Problem #2: Membership and Abandonment Rates
Consequently, "even in the unlikely event that all subjects were persuaded to adhere to new"scrapping"and "balance and excerpt”, the expected collection would be just over half of the gross debt: approx 298 billion".
But that's not all: according to the Observatory, consider yourself the membership rate and abandonments in the course of payment of the previous fiscal peace, “the amount that can be collected is around around 21 billion, which could reach 30 if legal persons had on average more substantial folders than natural persons".
Problem #3: State accounts do not improve
Moreover, the amount is classified as a one-off in European statistics and therefore does not contribute to reducing "structural net borrowing”, that is “the most relevant variable for the assessment of the state of public finances by the European Commission”, concludes the Observatory.
