The edition of July of the Swg Observatory photographs an indefinite political situation, in which all the forces in the field, acknowledging the imminent conclusion of the experience of the caretaker government (Monti himself has stated his intention not to reapply in 2013), they stall, as if waiting for someone else to make the first move, in order not to make any missteps.
THEthe only jolt to an immobile scenario was given, as often happens, by Silvio Berlusconi, giving up, to the amazement of a few, to remain on the sidelines and announcing, in a disturbing deja-vu, his new descent into the field.
Even so they explain the very slight variations in voting intentions compared to June. Pd unchanged compared to the previous month (24%). What remains of the Third Pole loses that 1,5% necessary to flesh out the bloodless consensus of the Lega (from 5 to 5,5%) and Pdl (from 15 to 16%), while the 5 Star Movement subsides which, after the impressive growth between May and June, settles at 20% (from 21%).
Substantially the picture of trust in the main leaders is also static: Grillo commands, at 29%, followed by Bersani at 26%, and then closely followed by Di Pietro (25%) and Vendola, paired at 23% with Maroni, who settled on more appropriate values after the peak in April. Further down Alfano (18%), who has never warmed the hearts of the electorate, and Berlusconi (17%) who is trying to get back on top. Fini and Casini close, arm in arm at 14%, and the obvious bottom line Umberto Bossi, detached at 6%. Separate discussion for Monti who, thanks to his international positions, gains one percentage point, rising to 34%.
Eloquent numbers, which tell the continuing haemorrhage of credibility of Italian politics. A haemorrhaging which, starting from the leaders, radiates on their parties, which try to get by without ringing, in precarious balance on thin and often ambiguous threads, almost as if they were frightened by the absolute need to go back to the current and regain the lost credibility with the citizens in time for the elections.
Il the party considered "most credible" by the interviewees is currently the 5 Star Movement, which however continues to divide public opinion in a Manichaean way between those who see absolute good in Beppe Grillo's party and those who, on the other hand, identify it with evil. The Democratic Party, after the peak of last year's administrative elections, remains on the levels of the beginning of 2011 (from 32 to 31%), while the IDV loses a little more, which perhaps pays a little usury, and, above all , Sel, which goes from 31 to 21% and the absence from Parliament is heavily discounted.
Right hits the dizzying drop in the PDL, which went from 41% to 19% in the space of a year and a half, even if the last movements, although they seem to be more formal than substantial, by covering the same body with a new dress (or perhaps with an old dress, but one that has risen to a renewed virginity, with the possible return to Forza Italia) should restore sap to the match.
The collapse of confidence in the Northern League, which fell from 34% to 11%, was also natural, following the scandals involving the Bossi family, while UDC and Fli stagnate and, after the abandonment of the Third Pole project that never took off, are floundering, waiting to find a new path to take.
Everything seems to stand still today, but everything is starting to move. Anything can happen between now and the 2013 election, given that the Italian parties, without exception, are all in the same quicksand, sunk into the abyss of their lack of credibility. Quicksand from which anyone, moving in the right way, can be able to emerge. It will be a long year.
