In this crazy 2012, the Athens Stock Exchange achieved a rise of 30 percent. Greek bonds outperformed every other financial asset : +84% compared to 12 months ago, followed by Portuguese bonds +80%. Japan archives a year of recession, culminating in yet another changing of the guard at the country's top leaders. The result? The index Nikkei climbs 22,5%, as has not happened since 2005. Italy is no different: the toughest year of the recession ended with a gain of 7,8%, against the losses of 2011 (-25%) and 2010 (-13,2%). The worst stock exchange, on the other hand, is that of Shanghai, only 1,5% more against a growth in GDP of 7,5%. Only Frankfurt +30% combines economic and financial leadership. But the consecration of made in Germany, to tell the truth, coincides with the braking of the German locomotive.
In short, it was the year of the great decoupling between the economy and the performance of the financial markets. A phenomenon that is not new but which has taken on sensational, if not paradoxical, hues. However, it is not difficult to explain the apparent madness: the financial world, in the hunt for new rules and points of reference, has relied on the direction of the central banks which have amply made up for both the lack of political leadership in the US election year and of the great European concerns than to the failures of the markets (see the Libor and Euribor scandals) which are struggling to find an autonomous equilibrium.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, central bankers have not only dictated the rules of the game, but also imposed the direction of financial flows and, when necessary, laid down the safety nets that have allowed the system to remain stable. The absolute protagonist, given the unlikely mission that fell to him, was undoubtedly Mario Draghi, at the head of the European Central Bank for 13 months. The rescue of the eurozone is undoubtedly thanks to his choices. In particular: a) the two Ltro auctions (the first in December 201, the most impressive in March 2012); b) the speech at Lancaster House in London, last July 25, in which he stressed that "the ECB would have done what was necessary to save the euro"; c) the launch of the OMTs, i.e. the rescue mechanism for countries which, adhering to specific conditions agreed with Brussels, would have asked for help.
No less relevant is the role of Ben Bernanke. The Fed chairman, who did not betray uncertainty in the face of Republican pressure during the electoral campaign, guaranteed the stock market and the US economy (particularly the building sector) the liquidity needed to start a slow but steady recovery. In December, once the electoral cliff had been overcome (but not that of the fiscal cliff), the Fed accelerated its pace, with a revolutionary novelty: the choice, for the first time, to link the injection of liquidity into the system to the unemployment rate . A choice which, according to him, will not involve inflationary risks because it is the result of elaboration weighted according to the "optimum policy". Simply put, the decisions of the monetary authorities are based on thousands and thousands of mathematical simulations through algorithms that allow identifying the best way to achieve the goal of full employment without creating excessive inflationary tensions. In figures, according to Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke's deputy who could take over his legacy, the "optimum policy" does not foresee rate hikes (currently almost zero) until 2016 when unemployment will have returned to around 6 percent . Inflation, despite this "easy" money policy, should not exceed 2,25 percent.
In short, in 2012, central bankers moved into new terrain, hunting for solutions capable of remedying the vacuum in politics. It is easy to predict that both Draghi and Bernanke will continue on the same path, joined by Mark Carney, already at the head of the Bank of Canada, from next spring governor of the Bank of England and chairman of the Financial Stability Board. Carney made no secret, when he presented himself to the City, that he did not rule out the solution of negative rates for deposits with the central bank, a path that is also being studied carefully by the ECB. This may not necessarily be the next novelty that bankers, financial operators and entrepreneurs will have to deal with. But what is certain is that even in 2013 the central banks will govern the markets with the "short reins".
Under this direction, however, the markets have overcome very insidious obstacles, better than even the most optimistic could have foreseen. Let's see how, starting from Piazza Affari.
BUSINESS PLACE
After two years of heavy losses, 2012 saw the Milan Stock Exchange return to a positive performance. The FtseMib index closed the year with an increase of 7,8% which barely soothes the pains of 2011 (-25%) and 2010 (-13,2%). The index stands today at 16.357 points, after having reached a maximum of 17.133 points on March 19th and a minimum of 12.362 on July 24th.
A comforting recovery, though the overall capitalization of the Italian Stock Exchange amounts to only 364,1 billion euros, equal to 22,5% of GDP, with a modest increase from the lows of 333,3 billion in 2011 (20,7% of GDP).
Despite the growing performance, the Italian stock market continues to suffer from a deep malaise, which is even worsening: a) trading has dropped to a daily average of 2 billion euro, from 2,8 billion the previous year. b) the only freshman of the 202 of the major market was Brunello Cucinelli, and Sea's IPO failed. Compagnia della Ruota, Primi sui motori and Frendy Energia made their debut in Aim. c) the forthcoming introduction of the Tobin tax could give the final blow to the day traders market, the only excellence of the Italian financial centre.
The most traded stock in 2012, as indeed in 2011, was Unicredit , both by value and in terms of number of contracts.
The best sector was probably the luxury sector. For multiple reasons. a) Savior Ferragamo +65% boasts the second absolute performance behind Azimut + 79%; b) Brunello Cucinelli made his debut with full success; c) the top te of the Ftse Mib also appears Tod’s+ 52%.
The disappointments are not lacking: a) The worst title was A2A -39%, followed by Mediaset -27%, weighed down by the collapse of advertising sales. In pain too Telecom Italy -17% which did not achieve the objective of the sale of Telecom Italia Media and the parallel reduction of the debt to 27,5 billion. Understanding and Unicredit close at -12%, confirming the difficulties of the banking system: the average roe of the sector, declared the general director of Abi John Sabatini, fell to 1,7%, worse than expected. On the other hand, non-performing loans are on the rise.
Difficult to identify, in this context, the entrepreneur of the year. The most significant changes concern the insurance sector, which has been awaited for major appointments since the beginning of 2013. In the middle of the month Mario Greco will present the team and objectives of the new Generali in London. Carlo Cimbri, in the same days, will be busy implementing the four-party merger between the former Ligresti group and Unipol. They are the most awaited protagonists.
GOVERNMENT BONDS
The BTP was certainly the great protagonist of the Italian financial market in 2012 which it had landed amidst patriotic trumpet blasts (the first BTP day) and many concerns about the stability of public finances. In the adventurous 12 months that passed between downgrades by rating agencies, hypothetical requests for help from international institutions and stormy summits in Brussels, the spread narrowed from 513 to the current 317. The BTP future quotations rose by 20% from 91,6 at the end of December 2011 to 110,5 today.
In the same 12 months, Bund futures prices rose by 4,3% from 139 to 145,7.
Also worthy of mention in the news of 2012 was the debut of the BTP Italia, the first security indexed to national inflation which collected over 27 billion in three tranches. Dating back to October, in particular, the third issue was the largest bond placement in Europe with over 18 billion raised in the four days of subscription on the Mot.
Equity Europe. Among the main European Stock Exchanges, the best is that of Frankfurt which closed 2012 with a rise of 29%. But if we broaden the horizon to minor markets, here is the surprise of Athens: the Greek Stock Exchange at the end of the year boasts a performance of +34%.
For the Paris Stock Exchange, the rise is 15,1%, while Madrid ends up down by 5,2%. London closes the year with an increase of 6,2%, which becomes 8,3% in euros.
In Europe the best sectors (Stoxx indices) were the automotive (+35%), insurance companies (+32%), chemical industries (+29%) and banks (+22%). The worst results are in the telecommunications sector (-10,9%) and oil (-4,5%).
WALL STREET
The S&P 500 index closed the year with an increase of 12,7% (+10,6% in euro) to 1.406, a level that brings it back to the glories of December 2007, before the outbreak of the great financial crisis. On September 14th, the main Wall Street index hit its year high at 1.465.
The Nasdaq closes 2012 with a respectable performance of +14,6%, which remains remarkable even in euro (+12,4%).
ASIA
The Nikkei index rose by 22,9%, the best performance since 2005. In euro terms, the increase is 7,8%. Among the other Asian Stock Exchanges, the best is the Indian one: the Mumbai BSE index rose by 25,8% (+19,5% in Euros). Hong Kong also did very well, gaining 22,9% (+20,7% in euro), Seoul rose by 9,3% (+16,5% in euro), while Shanghai remained at a standstill with a mini - increase of 1,5% (+0,6% in euro).
OIL AND GOLD
Crude oil prices were affected by the global downturn with the recurring fear of a slowdown in China's growth. In 2012 Brent fell 2,5% and WTI lost 11,6%.
The annual performance of gold (in dollars) is an increase of 6,1%: much less than expected by the gurus who, as usual, often didn't take us at all.
THE ITALIAN TOP TEN :
TOP 10 BLUE CHIPS
Azimuth +79%
Ferragamo +65%
Diasorin +59%
Prismian +57%
buzzes +55%
Finmeccanica +52%
Tod's +52%
Lottomatics +49%
Impregilo +48%
Banca Pop. Milano +48%
SEEN FROM BELOW
the 10 worst stocks
A2A -39%
Mediaset -27%
Telecom Italy -17%
Enel Green Power -12%
Unicredit -12%
MontePaschi -10,8%
Saipem -10,3%
Banca Pop.Emilia -4,2%
Enel +0,2%
Understanding +0,9%
