Where will the gold rush take us? Giacomo Andreoli, managing director of Confinvest, a leading company in the physical gold market (coins and ingots) has no doubts: "Gold is destined to rise - he says - at least until the trend towards falling rates, which is certainly not on the horizon, ends." In the US and even less in Europe because Mario Draghi is about to say goodbye with a new Quantitative Easing.
The yellow metal stands above the $1.500 an ounce level, with an increase of about 15 percent since the beginning of June. A record that guarantees gold the Oscar for performance of this crazy summer marked by the war of currencies and the Italian (and soon English) political crisis which takes on even more value if expressed in euros: gold had never touched these peaks in the common currency. But the phenomenon assures Andreoli, he will continue because “if we look at the fundamentals gold is still at a significant discount compared to the trend in the money supply”. To the satisfaction of Confinvest, the Italian leader in the physical gold market, which has just been listed on the Aim after 37 years of activity.
A lucky circumstance? In reality, more than chance, the development of rules and, above all, of technology could. The PSD2 EU directive has encouraged the development of a digital solution for gold, allowing Confinvest (which allocated the 3 million raised during the IPO to the company) to create a platform, called “Conto Lingotto”, which allows customers to access investment in physical gold directly from their bank. An opportunity for the public as well as for credit companies looking for products and services for customers who seem to like the purchase of physical gold, to be kept in custody at Confinvest but also in a safety deposit box, even more than Etc or of mining titles. “You can buy gold bars, the formula preferred by ordinary customers. For the more savvy, there are currencies that have a greater speculative appeal, starting from the Elizabeth pounds up to the South African Krugers or the Swiss marengos.
As long as the bull market lasts which, Goldman Sachs agrees, can continue up to at least 1.600 dollars an ounce. Other experts, including Andreoli, predict a phase of adjustment after the leap forward, between 1.550 and 1.600 before a second extension up to 1.900 -2.000 dollars. on the levels reached in 2011 in one of the most acute phases of the financial crisis. “But at the risk of sounding like a visionary – dares Andreoli – I wouldn't be surprised if we had entered a long-term upward phase”. Up to how much? "Let's just say I wouldn't be surprised to see a price tag of $5 within five years."
Of course, such long-term calculations in a market subjected to daily tensions have more the flavor of prophecy than of a forecast, but there is certainly method in the reasoning of gold lovers. First of all, Sub-zero cost money (and interest-free money) is a formidable incentive to bet on metal. To indicate the direction of march are the central banks, fleeing the dollar: the latest data, referring to last June, signal that in the first six months of the year theand central banks bought $15,7 billion in gold increasing the amount parked in their coffers by 374 tons as has not happened since 1971, when Richard Nixon proclaimed the non-convertibility of US currency. The tendency to diversify reserves from the dollar has united China and Russia, but Poland also surprisingly emerges.
E private investors are already following the example of the bankers central banks: German investors, the hardest hit by negative rates which now cover the entire range of Bunds up to thirty years) and City customers have bet on Etfes and Etcs, the Bigs (such as Exor) have shopped for mines, from Canada to Australia. But also ordinary savers who, with the sound of pounds or ingots, are recovering the old saving habits of the good old days. Perhaps with the contribution of the new technologies envisaged by the PSD 2 directive, a sort of revenge of the grandmother on the sorceries of the new finance.
