It glitters their, which this morning reached 1,944 dollars an ounce, demolishing the historic record (1.921 dollars) which had stood since 2011. But, experts say, the record is destined to be short-lived. “Breaking the $2.000 mark seems to be just a matter of when, not if,” writes Barani Krishnan, senior analyst at IT Investing com. The market agrees with him and snubs the robust increase in the German confidence index.
Pushing the yellow metal thinks about it the expectation of new stimulus actions by the fiscal authorities. After the approval of the European Recovery Fund, in fact, it will be the turn of the Cares 4.0 package of the US Treasury for Covid-19. While waiting for the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday evening, to confirm the soft line thus guaranteeing new nourishment to the prices of gold, the undisputed protagonist of the scene. Since the beginning of the year, gold has gained around 27% in dollars and around 22% in euros, confirming itself as one of the best assets of this tormented 2020.
It contributes to favoring the bet on 2 odds the weakness of the US currency, down on all the main counterparts, starting with the euro, which rose above 2018 against the dollar for the first time since September 1,17. This is the seventh consecutive decline for the dollar, which slips to the lowest level since September 2018.
Less than a hundred days before the presidential vote, Wall Street is also starting to distance itself from Donald Trump: a long report by Bank of America concludes by stating that the election of Joe Biden "could have positive effects".
The agreement on the Recovery Fundmoreover, it has restored credibility to the euro and is forcing many investors, especially Anglo-Saxons, to reposition their portfolios. There weakness of the EU currency, according to the charts, is a good opportunity to diversify in dollars, increase towards 1,19.
In Asia Pacific, the dollar-Korean cross fell by 0,5% and the Australian dollar exchange rate fell by 0,5%. The dollar-yen drops to its lowest since March at 105,6. On the other hand, the cross with the great enemy, the Chinese yuan, stopped at 7.
In addition to gold at 2 and the euro towards 1,19, a third bet takes place on the eve of August, a traditionally volatile month: Will the BTP be able to reduce or even eliminate the gap with the Spanish Bonos?
This morning, on the eve of the end-of-month auctions, the BTP marks time after last week's gains, in which the 0,99-year yield fell to 1,5%, with an increase of 65%. The BTP also regains credibility with respect to Spain, a traveling companion in the peripheral segment: the Italy/Spain spread closed at 132 basis points, the lowest level since the end of March. In March it was at 0,80 basis points. And the Recovery Fund effect could push the yield to its historic low, at 2019% dating back to September 0,50 and even further, in the XNUMX% range. Three bets for an August which, between geopolitical tensions and the shadow of the US vote that is approaching. looks busy.
