THE MARKETS ARE NOW BETTING TO CUT TAXES
CIMBRI: THE KEEPER PREMAFIN IS NOT IMPARTIAL
The magic moment of the Stock Exchanges continues in Asia. But the effect of the European agreements is relative. The Nikkei 225 opens the week up 0,20%, on the back of better-than-expected data from the Tankan, Japan's super-index of the economy. Instead, Hong Kong is booming +2,5%. In this case, the boost comes from much better indications than expected from the index of business purchases and, above all, from the recovery of the real estate market: for the first time in ten months, prices have started to rise again. The trend of all the European stock exchanges is also good.
Instead, it loses positionseuro ( 1,2628 -0,40%). The markets, awaiting decisions from the ECB, are looking closely at the unemployment numbers that will be announced this morning: it is expected that the number of unemployed in the EU in June rose to 11,1% (against 11% in May).
It also slows down the Petroleum, traded at $83,91 (-1,24%).
Spotlight on the ECB. After the outcome of the Brussels summit, the markets are expecting an energetic move by the Central Bank, on the occasion of the board meeting on 5 and 6 July. Forecasts are for a reduction in the reference rate by a quarter of a point, to 0,75 per cent, even if some are betting on half a point. Mario Draghi, however, could accompany the maneuver on rates with a cut in interest on deposits with the central bank. Today, parking liquidity in Frankfurt's coffers yields a modest 0,25%. The alternative would be, a historical novelty, the non-interest bearing deposit. In this way, resources could be freed up for credit to businesses which ended below zero in May for the first time in the history of the central bank. Finally, the ECB could signal to the markets its willingness to launch a new loan, i.e. Ltro 3, in the coming months.
Great curiosity and some trepidation for the behavior of the markets, after the Friday of records. The European Stock Exchanges, in the wake of the European agreement on the recapitalization of banks and the anti-spread shield, sparked off. But over the weekend there were signs that call for caution: the bad moods in Germany, the feeling that the real game will be played this week on the regulations relating to both banks and the anti-spread shield. The key appointment, pending the Eurogroup summit which will have to define the details of the agreements, is the Rome meeting between Angela Merkel and Mario Monti, set for Wednesday 4 July.
Markets recover after Friday's record gains. This morning Milan, which scored its best performance of 2012 in the last session (and the twelfth since 1998, the year of the privatization of the Stock Exchange) by gaining 6,59% unfortunately he will not be able to count on the driving effect of the blue team, while football could act as a propellant for the Madrid list.
This time, however, the two teams play in harmony: in both cases the role of acting as a propellant for a new rebound is entrusted to bank stocks, the most ready to take advantage of the measures approved in Brussels. UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Banco Popolare and Bper recorded double-digit leaps. Among the blue chips, only Ansaldo Sts closed with a negative result, which is still affected by the concerns of analysts on public investments in infrastructure and transport.
The evolution of the spread is even more awaited, falling on Friday to 421 points. The evolution of the proposals on the Italian spending review will also weigh on the evolution of public securities.
The capital increases of Fonsai and Unipol run the risk of a postponement, both due to the difficulty of meeting the technical deadlines (there is only one week left for the green light to be given to the prospectuses) and, above all, due to the concrete possibility of a new Premafin shareholders' meeting as requested by the judicial custodian of the Imsi and Sinergia, shareholders of the holding. The situation will be partially clarified to the two boards of Fonsai and Premafin scheduled for today. On the eve of the meeting, the CEO of Unipol Carlo Cimbri launches a heavy attack: the judicial custodian is not impartial, indeed he is playing into the hands of the Ligresti.
The last meeting of the Premafin board of directors recorded a sensational rift during Friday: faced with the letter in which Paolo Ligresti asks for the revocation of the board, Geronimo La Russa resigned from the board, breaking a decades-old solidarity between the two families of Sicilian origin. In the letter in which he requests its revocation, Ligresti accuses the current board of "wrong choices" and "conflicts of interest". Statements "of defamatory content" that have created "an intolerable climate" replied La Russa, presenting his resignation from the council in which he had sat since 2005 precisely on the proposal of the Ligresti.
Edf's takeover bid for 19,3% of Edison starts this morning. The price, equal to 0,89 euro, is very close to that marked by the stock in the latest exchanges in Piazza Affari. Romain Zaleski's Tassara remains unknown and promises legal action against the agreement between Delmi and the French company. In the meantime Tassara, which owns 10,025% of Edison, has presented a request to Consob to increase the price of the offer. On the basis of the regulations, the commission's response must arrive before the end of the offer, ie by 3 August. Tassara runs the risk of accusing almost unsustainable capital losses given the debt to the banks: the Edison shares are pledged with Intesa and Unicredit at a value between 1,4 and 1,5 euros.
