In four days, finally, things will start to get serious with the first scheduled races, but for weeks already, as happens before every Olympics, the total medals, made up of expectations, frantic calculations, calculations of possible and probable medals. There are two main sources, they are based on a series of mathematical and economic calculations, they are in conflict with each other but for both Italy will finish in ninth place in the final medal table.
The first is the study of Dartmouth Tuck School of Business and is based on a complex mathematical algorithm which uses as indicators the population of each country, its per capita income, past performance and any benefits derived from having already hosted the event. For example, nations such as the USA and Germany, having a larger population and a high income, should also be facilitated in an event such as the Olympics, since the richer a country is, the more it can invest in resources to prepare athletes.
According to this analysis, Italy should obtain 26 medals, of which 8 gold, while in first place would be the United States with 103 medals, then China with 94, Russia 67, the United Kingdom 62, Australia 47. The blue team should finish ninth, ahead of Japan, but behind France, Germany and South Korea, while for the host country, the United Kingdom, the post-war record of medals could arrive, of which 25 are gold (their maximum so far has been 47 at the Beijing Games).
La mathematical formula used by the Tuck School of Business was created by a professor named Andrew Bernard and was very successful especially in the first two editions in which it was tested, in Atlanta '96 and particularly in Sydney in 2000, when the number of US golds and the total medals of France were correct, while for Italy the calculation was wrong for only one podium. However, the two subsequent editions, in Athens and the latest in Beijing, gave less reliability, or at least certainty, to these calculations, at the end of which it was evident that they had not taken much: four years ago 33 medals were expected for Italy, but in the end there were 27, China instead of 81 obtained even 100, while Russia found itself twenty less.
The other well-followed source comes from the program “Olympic Medal Tracker” (OMT) used on the USA Today website. It too takes little account of sports or athletic variables, but takes advantage of parameters such as per capita income or whether or not the country in question has already hosted an Olympics. According to the experts this method reaches 93% accuracy, we just have to hope that they are right because this time we are awarded 33 medals (divided into 10 gold, 10 silver and 13 bronze).
A further projection of what could be the final medal table comes from PwC network, according to an analysis of the previous Olympic results, the political plans and the economic development of each single nation: in this case the USA would even dominate with 113 medals, followed by China with 87, Russia 68, Great Britain 54, Australia 42, Germany 41, France 37, Japan 28 e Italy again in ninth place paired with South Korea with 27 medals.
Obviously she didn't even back down from this little game Sports Illustrated magazine, considered a bit the Bible of American sport: for our expedition 30 podiums could come, 8 on the top step. Taking a look at the scope of bets concerning the blue team, for Snai the most probable number of gold medals is 7, the final medal count will be between 26 and 28 and the biggest bets regarding the position in the final classification oscillate between eighth and ninth, for the first place in the medal table the United States is the favorite with an odd of 1,60.
In summary, despite showing up in London with 48 athletes less than in Beijing (4 years ago there were 340, this time only 292, a figure deriving above all from the lack of qualification of many team sports such as football, basketball, handball and hockey and numerous absences in canoeing and in sailing), the Italian national team is not the underdog. In the various estimates, in fact, as we have seen, more than 25 podium finishes are predicted for the Azzurri, a number that may seem far from high to someone, but it is enough to remember that in Beijing with a much larger expedition the medals won were 27, with 8 golds and the seventh final position.
A few days ago, before leaving for London, Gianni Petrucci wanted to have his say on the hopes and expectations of the Azzurri athletes. The president of Coni was very realistic, aiming for a minimum of 25-26 medals, with the aim of remaining among the top ten countries (in the last 40 years we have only been outside the top ten twice: in Montreal '76 and Barcelona '92) and defending perhaps trying to improve the fifth place in the general ranking in history of the Summer Olympics, which sees us with 521 medals won starting from the second edition in Paris in the now remote 1900.
Petrucci made it clear that this will be a difficult Olympics for our group, which he will have to deal with rapidly growing teams such as France and Spain, but in general with the great preparation and specialization of most other nations. He also highlighted how our expedition this time has few spearheads and, recalling the fact that in 2004 Italy was the country with the most team sports present after the USA, comparing it with the current crisis, he wanted to reiterate that the best coaches are still ours, but too often they end up going to train abroad.
Speaking of the two most well-known faces of our movement, protagonists for various reasons this eve, the president of Coni wanted to underline how Pellegrini should not be burdened with too many responsibilities and expectations, also because she is not the only one, while it concerns the exclusion of Howe, it was a great regret but whoever has the responsibility must make decisions in compliance with the rules and with all the athletes. For the rest the strengths on which to place the greatest hopes will, as always, be the swimming and fencing boys, the usual Alex Schwazer in race walking and Alessandra Sensini in sailing, some medals could certainly come from fighting sports (judo and boxing), shooting , rowing and rhythm team, without forgetting the formations, both male and female, of volleyball and water polo who don't start favorites but can compete with all the others.
Some pleasant surprises could also come from women's cycling, from tennis in women's doubles with the Errani-Vinci couple and this year for the first time also by the two beach volleyball couples, but in general, beyond predictions, statistics and various controversies, once again the Italy of sport has all the credentials in order in order to do well.
