Amsterdam and Karlsruhe, today the future of Europe will be played out in these two cities. The Dutch will go to the polls to elect the next prime minister while the eight judges of the German Supreme Court of Justice will declare their verdict on the constitutionality of the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM), or the permanent state-saving fund. The results could mark the beginning of the European path towards greater integration (especially political) or raise the alarm of a fracture, of a two-speed Europe with an intransigent North that does not accept the differences of the South.
HOLLAND – According to the latest polls, the political confrontation remains at the center and sees Labor and Liberals facing each other. The two parties both have international support, they follow the political line dictated by Brussels, rigorously, as Merkel wants, but with their backs covered by an ECB which, with Mario Draghi, has shown that it has its own strength. Conservative Mark Rutte calls for even more cuts and greater austerity, while Labor Diederik Samsom, more in the Hollande style, also wants to focus on more investments. The real novelty is the socialist Emile Roemer, who recalls the Greek candidate Alex Tsipras: against austerity policies and obstinate defender of welfare, he calls for raising taxes on the wealthy and businesses and increasing public investment. His ascent to third place (and for a few days he was even listed as a possible winner) is the sign of a weariness with austerity that has not only spread in Greece, but also in more loyal Europe. Whichever party wins tomorrow will have to take Roemer into consideration. Especially since 21 parties are applying and it is probable that the winner will seek alliances where more votes will accumulate. Currently in fourth position is the far-right party, Eurosceptic and proposing the abandonment of the single currency, of Geert Wilders, who brought down the government in the last elections by opposing the austerity measures necessary for Prime Minister Rutte.
The Netherlands is the fifth largest country in the eurozone, but this year the GDP will mark a decrease of 0,9% and the deficit/GDP ratio exceeds 4%. Public debt is at 70% of GDP, in line with European requirements but private debt is skyrocketing (250% of GDP) and the property market is immersed in a bubble that risks bursting as it has already done in Spain and Ireland . The proof that Holland prefers a strong and united Europe, able to give it guarantees in a precarious situation like that of the Eurozone, and not the intransigence of the German hawks has already been Council of the ECB, when the governor of the Dutch central bank voted in favor of the Draghi Plan leaving the president of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann the only one to express the opposite.
ESM – But there is still hope for the Buba falcons. Today the eight judges of the German Federal Court could declare the European Stability Mechanism, the State-saving fund which is the basis of the new architecture designed by the ECB to revive Old Europe, inconsistent with the German Constitution. Yet so far positive signals have come from German leaders: a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel declared that the Government is "convinced of the constitutionality of the ESM" and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he was confident that the new Stability Mechanism would be approved. Perhaps with the addition of some more stringent conditions, but the verdict must be positive, otherwise all the efforts made so far to move towards a more united Europe could be lost.
