Oil prices rose to their highest in months today after Israel launched large-scale attacks on Iran, triggering an Iranian retaliation and fueling the concerns about disruption of oil supplies on the Strait of Hormuz. In the worst-case scenario, the closure of the strait could cause raise prices to $120-130 a barrel, analysts say. But theOpec + could calm the excesses modulating production.
Il US crude oil West Texas Intermediate saw a surge at one point jumping more than 11% to a high of $77,62, the highest level since Jan. 21 before settling. Futures on the Brent crude oil hit an intraday high of $78,50, the highest since January 27.
Today's gains represent the largest daily moves for both contracts since 2022, when theRussian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in energy prices.
Israel said it targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders, at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear weapon.Iranian nuclear plant at Natanz It was damaged, the country's Atomic Energy Organization said in a statement, but investigations did not reveal any radioactive or chemical contamination outside the site.
The President of the United States Donald Trump urged Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, to put an end to “next planned attacks.” The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said that refining and storage plants of oil They have not suffered any damage and continue to function.
Eyes on the Strait of Hormuz
But now the main concern was about the impact the latest developments could have on oil supplies with the main focus on Strait of Hormuz, SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said, as reported Reuters. “This important waterway has already been at risk due to increased regional volatility, but so far it has not been affected,” Hvalbye added. “There has been no impact on the flow of oil in the region so far.”
Across the Strait it passes approximately one fifth of world consumption total oil, or approximately 18-19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel.
JPMorgan analysts say that, in worst case scenario, the closure of the strait or a retaliatory response by the region's major oil producing countries could raise prices to $120-130 a barrel, almost double of their current baseline forecasts. The $10 a barrel price increase over the past three days did not yet reflect any decline in Iranian oil production, let alone an escalation that could disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.
The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the Israeli attacks against Iran a “unilateral action,” saying Washington is not involved, while urging Tehran not to target U.S. interests or personnel in the region.
Global stock markets have suffered a sharp decline this morning, after Israel carried out air strikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities. Traders are now wondering whether this jump in oil will be considered a bloodbath or not. According to Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad, “Fundamental data shows that almost all Iranian exports go to China, so discounted Chinese purchases would be the most at risk. OPEC+ spare production capacity can provide the stabilizing force,” he added. “A key question is whether Iranian retaliation will be limited to Israel or whether the leadership will seek to internationalize the cost of tonight’s action by targeting critical bases and economic infrastructure across the region,” RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note.
Investors looking for safe havens. Starting with gold returning to its highest levels
Apart from oil, investors in all markets, exiting the stock markets, have gone in search of safe havens, starting with gold and the Swiss franc. yellow metal at mid-session it is up 0,75% at around $3.421 an ounce, approaching the all-time high of $3.500,05 in April.
But in times of tension like today, many other assets are considered safer than stocks. Investors are also back to buying US Treasury securities, which had been snubbed in recent weeks, causing the r to dropTen-year bond yield at a one-month low of 4,31% and similarly the yield of Japanese government bond The 10-year fell to 1,4% today, hitting a five-week low.
But the Swiss franc and the yen also picked up investor concerns, while some traders were also drawn to the dollar, with the dollar index rising 0,5% to 98,131.
