As reported by Atradius, corporate insolvency scenarios are slowly improving in the Eurozone, in the face of a more sustained economic recovery. However the prospects for the last few months of 2015 are not as optimistic as they were in May, since the growth estimates of many markets have been revised downwards due to the still difficult employment scenario. Starting in the third trimester, the strengthening of the economic momentum should finally make operations easier for French and Greek companies, where, despite the economic recovery seen in the first quarter, the number of insolvencies in France actually rose in the first six months of 2015. In Greece, the escalation of the debt crisis has increased uncertainty, especially regarding the conditions dictated by the bailout program, further debilitating for the world of work. In Greece, the number of insolvencies is expected to increase by 9% this year and by a further 6% in 2016.
However, barriers also persist in other advanced markets. Less positive forecasts were also recorded outside the Eurozone, particularly in Switzerland and Australia. Swiss firms have been hit by the franc's surge, making the country's exports more expensive: insolvencies are expected to rise to 12%, 12 pp higher than the second-quarter estimates. In Australia, whose dynamic largely reflects the scenarios of the Far East, especially as regards the export of raw materials, an increase in outstanding payments of 2% is expected, compared to previous estimates which spoke of a decrease of 9% . Low commodity prices were the main reason for bankruptcies in Canada and Norway this year, in a scenario in which the North American market, the fourth largest oil exporter in the world, enters a recession in the first half of 2015 and suffers from a drastic drop in investments in the energy sector. In Norway, too, it is the cutting of investment plans that puts at risk future developments in the hydrocarbon sector. According to Atradius, in both countries it is possible to foresee a gradual improvement driven by the increase in oil prices in 2016, but for the remaining months of the year a decrease of -1% in Canada and -4% in Norway is expected, respectively.
