Berlusconi and the GDP: these are the two appointments awaiting Prime Minister Matteo Renzi today with relevant political and economic implications.
In the morning at Palazzo Chigi Renzi will receive Silvio Berlusconi for the third time to define the path of the Italicum and agree on possible changes to simplify the path of the electoral law: we will discuss reducing the thresholds to 4% and raising the bonus threshold majority at 40% as well as the possible introduction, albeit partial, of preferences. Renzi's goal is to obtain definitive approval of the Italicum, which has already been approved by the Chamber and is about to start its process in the Senate, within the year.
But no less important is the communication from Istat on the GDP for the second quarter both for Renzi and for the whole of Italy. The forecasts are placed in a range that oscillates between -0,1% and +0,2%. Renzi has tried to dampen the expectation by saying that the change of a few decimals doesn't make a big difference, but this is only half true. It is true that in any case, Istat will certify that, even in the most optimistic of hypotheses, the growth emergency is far from resolved and requires strong interventions to relaunch domestic demand and accelerate structural reforms (labour, taxes, bureaucracy).
But if, unfortunately, the GDP were to return to negative territory for Italy, the doors to the recession would reopen, which is triggered in the presence of two quarters of negative GDP and the first has already been. Renzi crosses his fingers but is the first to know that the economic but also political and psychological consequences of a possible return to recession would not be reassuring for his government.
Finally, the progress of the reform of the Senate continues in an accelerated way: yesterday the majority dribbled, albeit by only two votes, the pitfall created by an amendment by the dissident Pd Casson which asked for Palazzo Madama to be given the function of pronouncing on issues delicate as the aminista and the pardon. We voted, with no small amount of suspense, by secret ballot and the majority held up by rejecting the amendment. A speech on the reform in the Senate hall by Renzi himself is scheduled for tomorrow. If there are no incidents along the way, the reform could be approved in the first reading by the Palazzo Madama assembly between Thursday and Friday. In this way Renzi would undoubtedly derive a political dividend both internally and internationally because he could say that in a few months he has received the first yes from Parliament on the new electoral law and on the constitutional reform of the Senate.
