AUCTION BOT: THE TREASURE TOWARDS AN OSCAR BIS. IMPREGILO AND PREMAFIN, TWO STARS ON THE STOCK MARKET
The Treasury, after the success of the Ctz auction on Friday, is now attempting an encore: 8,75 billion semi-annual Bots will be offered this morning plus 3,25 billion 'flexible' Bots at 295 days. The optimism is justified, as well as by the recent market response, to the trend of shorter maturities of BTPs: On the secondary market, the yield of 2-year BTPs fell by 6 basis points to 2,77%, a level that had been seeing since April. The yield of the 10-year BTP instead fell at the end of the week to 5,45% (-6 basis points), the spread with the German Bund is at 357.
The Deputy Minister of Economy Vittorio Grilli, in Mexico City for the G20, showed optimism for the macroeconomic context, explaining that the recession in Europe and in the world is slowing down and Italy will do its "best to disavow the most pessimistic estimates" of the fall in GDP elaborated in the midst of the crisis at the end of 2011: starting with that of the IMF which speaks of a drop of 2,2% for 2012. “The economies are still fragile but better than expected signals are coming from the USA with a slowdown in the fall” added Grilli.
The financial week starts at a slow trot: the Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo falls back to -0,02% despite the drop in the yen, which slipped to its lowest level in nine months against the dollar. The threat of a surge in crude oil prices linked to the Iranian crisis is being felt in Japan and Korea. Brent is traded at 126,13, while Wti scores 109 dollars The G36 has acknowledged the "significant progress" of Europe, recognizing the efforts of Italy and Spain. But on the new financial endowments to the IMF, calculated at two trillion, the decision is still on the high seas. The United States and the United Kingdom believe that the EU must first increase its defenses and, only later, it will be possible to strengthen those of the IMF in defense of the Eurozone it must also demonstrate its ability to curb any contagion to the crisis of the debt.
However, the Berlin delegation opposed a further strengthening of the resources in the hands of the State Rescue Fund and the ESM beyond the 500 billion already envisaged (of which 250 already destined for Greece, Portugal and Ireland). The fact that this morning the Bundestag will have to choose whether or not to approve the plan of 130 billion loans to Greece helps to explain Berlin's obstinacy. Meanwhile, by Wednesday, Greece will have to transform 38 measures agreed in Brussels into law. Finally, in March, the new funds for the bailout will still have to be paid. But the payment will not take place, as hoped, on Thursday 1st March. “The month – said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble – has 31 days”. Berlin's decision to send 160 tax inspectors on a voluntary mission to Athens to help their Greek colleagues collect taxes contributes to heating the fire of the controversy: Greek problems, it is explained, are very similar to those of East Germany after unification. The government has welcomed the help, but tensions are already mounting.
There will be no postponements, however, for the most awaited appointment by the European banking world: everything is ready for the big auction on Wednesday 29 February, when the banks will present their loan applications to the ECB backed by “soft” collateral, as the Bundesbank has already complained. The allocation of liquidity for 490 billion is expected. About a tenth of the allocated amount should go to Italian banks. Much less predictable is how much of that money will go to alleviate the credit crunch that is choking the real economy.
First test on the Stock Exchange for Impregilo after the agreement between the Benettons and the Gavio group, now the sole shareholder of Igli. The Benettons, in fact, left the first Italian construction company, Impregilo, in the night between Friday and Saturday. The agreement provides for Gavio to purchase the 33% stake in Igli from Atlantia for €87,6 million, net of a pro-rata debt of €60 million, at a price of €3,65 per share (the same already paid to Fonsai dei Ligresti to detect the same share). In addition, an option was agreed in favor of Gavio to take over 99,9% of the Turin-Savona motorway, which belongs to the Benettons, by the end of the year for 225 million. In exchange, the Benettons buy from Gavio 45,76% of Asa Autostrade per il Sudamerica, which has concessions in Chile and where they already own a similar stake, for 565 million. Now the spotlights of the market turn on the Salini group, which holds about 20% of the company. Pietro Salini told the Financial Times that "no option can be excluded", not even recourse to the takeover bid.
From today it will be possible to sell financial securities short in Piazza Affari. If we look at what happened in similar conditions in France and Spain, we can expect new shocks which in the end translated into good buying opportunities. Last Friday the banks recovered after the declines of the previous session. Intesa Sanpaolo rose by 2,9%, Unicredit +2,2%, Banco Popolare +0,8%, PopMilano +2%, Mediobanca +2,3%. The managing director of Ubi (+2,1% on Friday) Victor Massiah, interviewed by Il Sole 24 Ore, did not dissolve the reserve on the distribution of the dividend. The manager specified that the assignment of the coupon also depends on factors external to the bank. MontePaschi gained 1,5%. Just Banca Mps leads the ranking of last week's earnings +11,9% pending the close of the tender between Clessidra, Equinox and other competitors for the share that will be sold by the Foundation. Meanwhile, the austerity plan launched by the new general manager Fabrizio Viola was welcomed by the declaration of a strike: on 6 March the bank's activities will stop.
A crucial week also for the insurance challenge. The Ligresti family holding company has proposed to the creditor banks the issue of a convertible loan for an amount of 150 million euros. The operation will serve to restructure Premafin's debt, which rose by 23% on Friday after being suspended for a long time. According to what was reported by the press over the weekend, it is possible that Consob could force EDF to raise the price of the takeover bid launched by the French giant on Edison. The offer price is currently set at 0,84 euros.
