WHO BIRTHDAY SAD ABOUT THE DOWN EURO. LIGRESTI AND MPS HOLD THE BANK IN MILAN
Let's start once again. Without getting too many illusions. This morning, statistics from Brussels should signal the fifth consecutive decline in manufacturing industry in the EU area. Meanwhile, the first trades on Asian stock exchanges signal the weakness of the euro at 1,29 against the dollar and at lows against the yen.
It is a must, this morning, to blow out the candles on the birthday cake of the euro which is ten years old. But there is no festive atmosphere. The single currency is suffering from an evident crisis of confidence, even if it is an exaggeration to speak of the risk of default. But, for the first time, last year the single currency suffered a fall against both the dollar and the yen. The weakness of the last few weeks (not unwelcome to exporters) is actually more linked to the rate cut operated by the ECB and the injection of liquidity into the financial system than to the ghost of the crack. But the coin, still in its youth, is run over by black predictions.
A RAIN OF TITLES FOR THE EUROZONE. Between today and the end of March, 157 billion euro-zone securities will expire. More than a third (53 billion) concerns Italian Btp, Cct and Ctz. It is around these figures that the most important financial battle in Europe for seventy years has been fought since this morning. With what strategy? The week will be dominated by the march towards the umpteenth summit of du Sarkozy Merkel, scheduled for 8-9 January which, in turn, is intended to prepare the European summits of 23 and 30 January. In view of those appointments Mario Monti intends to develop the "Grow Italy" package. In a difficult climate, given the rates over 7% and the spread with the German bunds at 526, plus a real economy in marked recession. “Italy – comments the Nobel Prize winner Michael Spence – needs time and Europe must help it buy time” for the maneuver on public finances to show the world the first tangible successes. Words similar to those used by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in an interview with Bild: "The bailout fund can only be used to buy time while waiting for the indebted countries to take the necessary measures to regain confidence".
This morning, meanwhile, the ECB becomes, at least on paper, more "political". Instead of Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, in fact, comes the Frenchman Benoit Coeure, who was deputy finance minister at the Bercy ministry. The post of chief economist of the institute, vacant since the resignation of the hawk Juergen Stark, in disagreement with the decision to make purchases of Btp and Bonos by the ECB, is instead taken by Joerg Asmussen, also already number two in the Ministry of Finance in the Merkel era. Asmussen was a student, like the current president of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, of Axel Weber, another enemy of bond purchases by the central bank. On the contrary, the French Coeure, before the European Parliament, said it was in favor of the launch of Eurobonds.
ASIA, DECLINED START. Let's start once again. At a small trot. Today, in fact, several major markets are closed for holidays, from Tokyo to Hong Kong to US price lists. But the start of 2012, a leap year, takes place in the name of uncertainty: the MSCI Asia Pacific basket, made up of the blue chips of the continent (except for Japan) drops by 0,4%. South Korea expects a drop in exports due to the Eurozone crisis, while Singapore, the most sensitive thermometer in the region, forecasts that its GDP, already revised downwards to 4,8% for 2011, will not rise more than '1%. An exception is the Mumbai Stock Exchange (+0,4%) after five days of decline: the government has lifted the ban on foreigners making purchases on the list.
Positive notes come from Beijing. China, President Hu Jintao underlined yesterday, is capable of reconciling "relatively rapid" economic growth with the fight against inflation. The first statistic of the year confirms this programme: in December the manufacturing production index rebounded to 50,3 more than expected. But the stock exchange year opens in Shanghai with disturbing news: the Chinese joint venture between Société Générale and the steel giant Baosteel, one of the main protagonists of the Stock Exchange, has announced that it will no longer participate in the IPO market: the quality of new titles on offer, reads a note, is "simply indecipherable".
WEATHERBAG. THIN VOLUMES, RISK OF STORMS. Let's start once again. With "lighter" stock exchanges given that in 2011 capitalization fell by 6.300 billion dollars compared to a year ago. MIano did its part: the Italian FtseMib (-26%) was in fact the worst index, weighed down by the vertical fall of financial stocks. This morning, in the absence of the most important international operators, a thin market with volatile moods is expected. Euro area macro statistics could favor downward corrections. On the contrary, the news in Mps (change of the guard at the top) and the big movements on the Ligresti front could favor lively ideas.
After all, financials start from very low positions. In 2011 the downside in Europe fell to banks (-38%) and insurance companies (-20%) penalized not only by the negative economic cycle but also by the fall in government bonds. A year to forget also for cars (-26%), utilities (-25%) and raw material (-40%) on expectations of a sharp slowdown in demand. Leading the way are the classic defensive sectors, with little connection to the dynamics of the cycle and interest rates: food (+5%) and pharmaceuticals (+18%).
Remember that the markets are laid off since 2011 with a positive session: the FTSE Mib index gained 1,22%, returning above 15.000 points (15.089,74 points at the close). But on Wall Street, despite the positive macro data of the day, the stock markets closed in negative territory, on the wave of worries about the European debt.
FONDIARIA, CLESSIDRA AND UNIPOL ON TRACK. MEDIOBANCA PREPARES AFTER LIGRESTI
After the boom of Premafin +30,6% in the last session of 2011, the Ligresti yard still holds the court in Piazza Affari in its debut session of 2012. The plan of Mediobanca, once again director of Fondiaria Sai, envisages that the private equity Clessidra, founded by Claudio Sposito, enters Premafin, to then subscribe, together with other partners (including DeA) to a capital increase of 200 million which will serve to underwrite the Fonsai increase pro rata (between 600 and 750 million) without dilute the holding which until now is controlled by the Ligresti and will probably no longer be controlled by the spring. In parallel, the insurance group, together with the advisor Goldman Sachs, is working to involve an industrial partner in the relaunch of Fonsai: Unipol has opened the dossier, expressing its interest in the negotiation.
MPS: IT'S ALREADY COMING FROM BPER FABRIZIO VIOLA. MUSSARI IS ALSO READY TO PACK UP
Monte dei Paschi changes the head of the company. The board of directors of next January 12, it was announced on the afternoon of New Year's Eve "will examine the proposal for the appointment of Fabrizio Viola as general manager". The manager from Rome, born in 1958, until now managing director of the Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna (and previously number one of the Popolare di Milano) has already resigned yesterday from the Modena institution to replace the general manager Antonio Vigni, "who with great sense of attachment to the company has expressed his willingness to terminate his employment relationship in a consensual manner”. A chair is ready for him in the Mps Foundation, which requires hard work to restore a high-risk financial situation. Also ready to leave the president Giuseppe Mussari who, as anticipated by the mayor of Siena Franco Ceccuzzi, “has already made it known in the appropriate forums that he considers his experience in the Monte to be over. It will therefore be up to Viola - according to rumors contacted after the refusals of Fabio Gallia (Bnl) and Marco Morelli (Intesa Sanpaolo) - to face the capital strengthening plan imposed by the European Banking Authority by 20 January, and which for Mps plans to fill of 3,2 billion the capital to raise Core tier 9 to 1%.
