The wave of liberalization and privatization that began after the fall of the Berlin Wall could break in the Polish parliamentary elections on 9 October. The liberal drive that the current premier Donald Tusk, leader of the centre-right Civic Platform party, has wanted to give to the Polish economy will depend on the government structure that emerges from the polls.
Up until a week ago, the electoral campaign in Warsaw seemed monotonous. Now the polls give Tusk's party an advantage with a range between 15 and 1 percent (depending on the percentage of undecided people detected) over the main opposition party, the Catholic-style conservatives of Justice and Freedom, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynsky (brother of ex-President Lech, who died in the Smolensk plane crash in Russia). However, the victory of Civic Platform is not in question, and Tusk is expected to become the first prime minister to serve the country for two consecutive terms. But the coalition that will form after the vote will have an impact on the only country in the European Union that has avoided recession in times of crisis, and that in 2011 will grow at a rate of 4 percent (1,2 points more than Germany ).
"The best option - comments Serena Giusti, a researcher at the Institute for International Political Studies in Milan - would be to continue the government alliance with the People's Party, which, although it can be defined as conservative, remains attentive to social issues, and therefore, for example, I still see a radical pension reform as difficult. A coalition with other left-wing formations, on the other hand, raises a few more questions. An agreement with the Alliance of the Democratic Left (Sld) is in fact more risky and its young leader, Grzegorz Napieralsky, has so far not held conciliatory positions”.
Economics
In 2010, the country's growth (3,8 per cent, lower only than Slovakia) was sustained by 50 per cent thanks to domestic demand, and there is no reason to doubt that the trend will end soon: per capita GDP is growing and the market is not saturated. One of the fiefdoms of European relocation par excellence, it has climbed the rankings for foreign direct investment, coming sixth in the world ranking for attractiveness, according to United Nations statistics. (And the 2012 European soccer championships, organized with Ukraine, will act as a further driving force above all for infrastructure.) After a slowdown in 2009, exports recovered last year, recording a 10 percent increase (26 percent of exports are directed to Germany). In this sense, the strong integration with German companies and a possible fallout from the leading economy in the euro area could also hit Warsaw: the problems of the European neighbors are in fact the main element of uncertainty hanging over Poland's future, so much so that the estimates for 2012 predict a slowdown in the cycle. The out-of-control public finances of countries such as Greece, Italy and Ireland, however, contrast with the solidity of the public finances of the former Soviet economy, which records a public debt at 60 percent of GDP: lower than Germany and France. The deficit, albeit smaller than the English one, represents instead one of the challenges of the government structure, which optimistically aims to arrive below 3 percent at the end of the year. Another strong point, underlined by Prime Minister Tusk, is the ability to put to good use the 81,2 billion in European loans that flowed into state coffers from 2007 to 2013.
CURRENCY
“It is difficult to imagine that Poland will join the euro in the coming years. It is certain that the countries of the single currency have to face and overcome some of the problems they are going through before we Poles take this decision”. The statement, which looks like a sentence, is from Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski. In the national debate, the question of joining the single currency has in fact evaporated and it is "unlikely that the government will decide to join the European exchange-rate Mechanism (Erm II; the pegging to the exchange rate of the national currency with the euro ) at best in 2014-15”, write the analysts of the Economist Intelligence Unit. The concern of economists derives, if anything, from the weakness of the Polish currency. Since May, the zloty has depreciated both against the Swiss franc (16 percent), a safe haven currency during periods of market volatility and in which most mortgages in Poland are denominated, and against the euro (5 percent). . But it is a condition that does not seem destined to last: “At this juncture – notes Marcin Mrowiec, chief economist of Bank Pekao (UniCredit group) – it is important to note the factors that play against a further weakening of the zloty. […] A weak zloty will stimulate the economy, easing state budget concerns. Secondly, at current levels the zloty does not reflect the fundamentals of the economy”.
BANKS
The banking system of the central European region has not been affected by a real credit crunch in the last two years, but some main players in the market have entered into difficulties. This has accelerated in Poland what is expected to be the most interesting banking risk in Europe. After the more recent acquisitions of the Spanish Banco Santander of Bank Zachodni and of RBI on Polbank, the entry of other international players is looming, above all thanks to the spaces left free by the weaker banks, such as the Portuguese ones. The French Bnp Paribas and the Polish Pko and Pekao, part of UniCredit Group, which holds 12,7 percent of the shares of the national market, have already made their offers for the Portuguese Bank Millennium. According to Reuters, six other banks are also affected. Among these also Intesa Sanpaolo, not yet present in Poland. Market rumors collected by First Online want the institution led by Corrado Passera to be at a good stage in the negotiations "with a 20-30 percent chance", bank sources outside Intesa explain, of concluding the deal positively.
