Week full of corporate events on both sides of the ocean. Today's appointment with Banca Intesa stands out in Italy. In the meantime, the Greek question is increasingly "hot". But, surprisingly, Germany will be the highlight of the beginning of the week: showdown in Volkswagen and declining results of Deutsche Bank (559 million profits against 1,5 billion) after the record fine will face the test of the Stock Exchanges.
HSBC'S MOVE EXALTS HONG KONG
Meanwhile, the script of the Asian markets has not changed: the economy slows down under pressure from China (-0,4% industrial production in March), the stock exchanges of the Pacific area are advancing to their highest levels for seven years. Chinese markets rose in particular: Hong Kong +1,3%, driven by the boom of HSBC (+5,4%) which threatened to move from London to the former colony to escape the new rules of the City, Shanghai +1,8 1,2% and Shenzhen +0,15%. The Tokyo stock market moved little -XNUMX%, held back by the strengthening of the yen: the Bank of Japan is preparing to revise its economic forecasts downwards.
TONIGHT THE ACCOUNTS OF APPLE, WEDNESDAY 'FED AND US GDP
However, the attention of the markets is already focused on the United States. In fact, the summit of the FOMC, the monetary committee of the Federal Reserve, will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the same day, almost simultaneously with the press conference of President Janet Yellen, the first preliminary data on US GDP for the first quarter will be announced: the revision is for growth of 1%. After the record of the Nasdaq (and the jump of Amazon +1,4%) the attention of analysts is still focused on the quarterly.
The event will open tonight, with closed markets, Apple (+60% since the beginning of the year). There is great expectation to evaluate the impact of the strong dollar on Apple's accounts. So far, the cost of the US currency appreciation is about $20 billion, according to initial analyzes of the quarters of the corporations that have announced their financial statements. Among others, the following accounts will come out: Pfizer, Kraft, Time Warner, Conoco Philips, Time Warner Cable, Exxon and Mylan, targeted by Teva with a 41 billion dollar takeover bid.
GREECE, IT IS IN THE SHADOW OF PLAN B
Plan B? Or not? Greece's march to the edge of the brink is set to dominate the next two weeks of European finance. And the European leaders are trying to develop a strategy to avoid the worst: to allow Greece to default but to remain in the eurozone. "It is not up to a minister to confirm or not the existence of a plan B - explained Wolfgang Schaeuble - But think of the reserve that preceded German unification".
After the interlocutory outcome of the Riga summit (site of an unexpected trial of the "amateur" Varoufakis), it is increasingly difficult to predict what will happen on May 11, when Athens will have to repay the IMF with money it doesn't have at the moment. Eurogroup president Jeroem Djissembloem reiterated that Greece's European creditors will not authorize the release of new financial aid until Athens - despite imminent bankruptcy - agrees on a complete plan of economic reforms. Dijsselbloem also stressed that the currently frozen 7,2 billion euros of loans to Greece will no longer be available after June.
TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDER THE MARK OF REPORT
The end-of-month Treasury auctions are coming in an agitated climate also due to the Greek crisis.
A) Bonds for 11 billion will be offered between now and Wednesday. Today we start with 1.5-2 billion Ctz biennially and two Btpei issues (maturity 2021-2024) between 500 and 750 million. We will continue with the 6-month Treasury bonds (.5 billion against 6,6 maturing). On Wednesday, 5-year BTPs (3-4 billion, 10-year (1,5-2 billion) over Ccteu between 1,75 and 2,25 billion will be placed.
B) the yield differential between Italian and German ten-year bonds closed on Friday at 128 points after a fluctuation between 122 and 130 basis points. The rate on the 10-year BTP recorded a return of 1,427% after a low of 1,374% reached in the morning and from 1,402% at the last closing.
C) The offer falls after the Fitch agency confirmed Italy's rating at BBB+ on Friday evening, motivated by the effects of Qe and the drop in the oil bill.
D) The debate is growing around the possibility of respecting the very ambitious goal of the Def of bringing the debt back to 120% of GDP within four years. The government presents a very virtuous path which envisages cutting the debt/GDP by more than 9 percentage points in the three-year period 2016-2018, approaching what is requested by the European Commission (one twentieth a year of the quota exceeding 60% of GDP, today the 3,5% per annum but destined to decrease).
E) In this context, the debate was unleashed around the "revelations" on the derivatives subscribed by the Treasury, re-launched yesterday evening by the Report investigation. Italy has paid 16,9 billion in the last 4 years due to derivative contracts. And an even higher drain is looming in the future, which is not shared by the public debt of other countries.
CARS, VOLKSWAGEN, RENAULT AND FCA IN THE SPOTLIGHT
The automotive sector is in the spotlight in Europe. In addition to Fiat Chrysler (+1,01% on Friday) which will announce the quarterly accounts on Wednesday the 29th, Volkswagen is the center of attention, after its break at the top. Surprisingly, the resignations of President Ferdinand Piech and his wife Ursula came on Saturday after the failed blitz against CEO Martin Winterkorn, defended by the government of Lower Saxony and by the metalworkers' union, both major shareholders of the Wolfsburg group. behind the heirs of Ferdinand Porsche, including Piech himself, 51 percent strong.
The disagreement at the top has so far cost a heavy decline in the shares of the leading European automotive group, one step away from the global record: -9% since the start of hostilities even if there was a rebound on Friday (+2,26%). Beyond the personal conflicts, in addition to Piech, the Qatari fund, with a strong 5,4% stake, has also sent signs of discontent. The group, although very strong in China, suffers serious delays in the low-cost project for the Asian market, disappointing results in the United States and a drop in profitability, although offset by the exploits of Audi. New twists cannot be ruled out.
Hot week also for Renault +3,7% on Friday after the excellent results. Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron ordered by letter and with an intervention in Le Monde to vote in the assembly on April 30, against the funds that ask for the abolition of multiple votes, according to the Florange law, which guarantees Paris control of the Nissan-Renault group with 15%. Carlos Ghosn does not hide his hostility: the risk, he says, is the revolt of Japanese shareholders.
After so many announcements, Pininfarina's transfer to the Indian group Mahindra & Mahindra will finally take place during the week, barring unlikely surprises.
INSURANCE, REBOUND TESTS. THURSDAY THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Proof of collection for securities in the insurance sector. In fact, last week Unipol Sai -4,08% was the worst stock in the Ftse Mib basket followed by Generali -3,26%, which will hold its budget meeting on Thursday 30 April. The crash was caused by a menacing report by Morgan Stanley on the European sector, with a particular eye on the life sector: the near-zero yields of government bonds and, in general, the decline in bonds are putting the branch's stability at risk life. The hardest hit stock on Friday was Allianz -2,7% in Frankfurt. Axa -1,04%.
UNDERSTANDING TODAY AT THE MEETING. UNICREDIT SUPERSTAR
The credit sector will also be dominated by attention to the German market: the accounts of Deutsche Bank were announced over the weekend, conditioned by the heavy fine for the Libor scandal. The assembly in Turin of Banca Intesa San Paolo stands out in Italy. It will be an opportunity to take stock of the agreement with Unicredit and Kkr for the vehicle into which part of the risky credits of the two big Italian banks will flow.
But Friday's thriller enlivened the eve. Anonymous e-mails gave birth to false rumors about the resignation of CEO Carlo Messina. The spread of the false press release had an impact on the stock which slipped into negative territory, reaching a low of 2,988 euros, whereas until then it had been largely positive. It then closed on Friday at €3,076, up 1,05%.
Unicredit +7,1% was the best stock of the week after the announcement of the operation on Pioneer with Santander and the Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic funds. "We plan to close by the end of the year - said the CEO Federico Ghizzoni - and to start in the new year with the operation done".
UBI is also being tested by the market (+4,82% last week) after Saturday's meeting in which CEO Victor Massiah specified that the bank, open to the hypothesis of integrations but ready to proceed alone, has no intentions to choose an advisor to be assisted in any mergers. Massiah also denied talks in the Bank of Italy in view of an agreement with Banco Popolare (+5,46% during the week).
QUARTERLY, IT'S THE TURN OF SAIPEM. FINECO RELEASES THE COUPON
The corporate agenda for the week is loaded with quarterly reports (Eni's accounts will be held tomorrow) meetings and coupon detachment. Today the meetings of: Banzai, Basicnet, Cattolica, Cerved, Cir, Cofide, It way, Mutui on line, Safilo, Stefanel will be held. Saipem stands out among the quarterly reports. Also on the calendar: Aedes, Basicnet, Cir , Cofide , Intek, Safilo. Today the dividends are detached: Exprivia (0,028 euro), FinecoBank (0,2 euro), Prima Industrie (0,2 euro), Servizi Italia (0,16 euro) and Tech-Value (0,02 euro).
