14 pm. Mario Draghi's monthly press conference kicks off at the Eurotower in Frankfurt, at the end of the directorate of the European Central Bank. At that time the judges of the Cassation will probably still be in the conclave to decide the fate of "case number 8", the one involving Silvio Berlusconi. It is easy to foresee that the financial day, even if full of events worthy of headlines on a normal day, will be punctuated by the events of this fiery afternoon.
Another case, surprisingly, makes the atmosphere of Piazza Affari red-hot: Telecom Italy -6,3% yesterday, on the wave of rumors de The messenger about a capital increase of the group to face new write-downs of goodwill. The group, in a note, denied the news, but the landslide on the stock market continued.
The case had a sensational end: yesterday in Rome and Milan, the Guardia di Finanza carried out searches in the offices and home of the director of Telecom Italia, Elio Catania, and other people for inside trading. According to the indictment, Catania would have provided the press with privileged information on Telecom, information the dissemination of which would have caused strong fluctuations in the stock market. The Telecom adviser was joined by the Yellow Guard while he was participating in a meeting of the company's risk committee.
CHINESE PMI AND BERNANKE PUSH TOKYO
Positive day for Asian stock exchanges. Tokyo rises vigorously +1,5% one hour after closing, sitting with a plus sign also for Hong Kong and Shanghai. Two factors for the increase. First of all, the outcome of the FOMC meeting, which has not yet stopped the purchases of securities. Even more important is the PMI data (that is, the purchasing intentions of managers) arriving from China: 0,3 points just above the border that divides recovery from recession. China is holding back, therefore, but not skidding.
Balanced indices on Wall Street: Dow Jones -0,14%, S&P -0,01% and Nasdaq +0,27%. Yesterday Ben Bernanke confirmed the validity of the saying "no news, good news". At the end of the FOMC meeting at the press conference, the chairman of the Federal Reserve gave up relying on a statement in which he speaks of a recovery at a "modest" instead of a "moderate" pace. As many as 11 out of 12 governors (with the exception of the diehard Elizabeth George) voted in favor of keeping rates at exceptionally low levels, between 0,25 and 0,50 percent. The feeling of the market is that the tapering is approaching, or the reduction of the purchases of securities on the market by the Fed.
The forecasts are confirmed by the numbers of the economic situation. US GDP rose by 1,7% in the second quarter, much more than expected. Not only. Thanks to the revision of the statistical bases of GDP, US growth could reach 3% by the end of the year, a result in line with the strong increase in employment in July: 200 million more new payrolls.
Modest variations for the European Stock Exchanges: Paris up 0,1%, Frankfurt -0,1%, London better (+0,5%) favored by the weakness of the pound which, on the eve of the Bank of England meeting, slipped to its lowest since the beginning of March against the euro.
Inflation in Europe in July remained stable at 1,6%, in line with analysts' estimates. The unemployment rate was also stable in June at 12,1%, both in Euroland and in Italy where youth unemployment hovers around a terrible 39%.
Piazza Affari closed down -0,4%, a session dominated by quarterly reports. The Btp/Bund spread is flat at 272. Germany placed 1,67 billion thirty-year bonds with yields of 2,47% from 2,1% in the previous auction.
JULY, THE GOLDEN BUDGET FOR EUROPE. AND GOLDMAN DOUBLE IT
The Stock Exchanges record the changing mood of the global economy. The Eurozone was the liveliest area in July: the Eurostoxx gained around 6%, supported by the performance of Madrid +8%. Frankfurt stopped at +4%. But leading the pack is Milan +8,2%.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management has doubled its investment quota in European equities from 4 to 8 percent: the aim is to anticipate the exit from the recession of the Old Continent. In second place are the US Stock Exchanges. Wall Street with the S&P500 which gained around 5,5% over the month.
On the other hand, the balance of the Stock Exchanges of emerging countries was contrasted: India -2,5%, Brazil +1,5%, Russia +3,4%. Since 2009, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has burned $750 billion. Tokyo, queen of the first quarter, stopped at parity.
FIAT INDUSTRIAL TRAINS MILAN. THEN HE GOES TO HOLLAND
Day dominated by quarterly reports. And from an excellent farewell. Today Fiat Industrial +2,8% flows into the Dutch company Fiat Industrial Nv in view of the merger with Cnh. From mid-September the new CNH Industrial will be listed on Wall Street.
Before the dismissal, the Fiat company granted itself an exceptional performance. “Never seen numbers like this” comments Sergio Marchionne, before flying to the United States: the company that controls CNH and Iveco closed the second quarter with a trading profit of 633 million euros, well above the 580 million forecast by the consensus. Net income stood at 328 million euros above the 290 estimated by analysts. Net debt stands at 2,274 billion, below the 2,550 estimated by the consensus. Today Fiat Industrial merges into the Dutch company in view of the merger with CNH. From mid-September the new CNH Industrial will be listed on Wall Street.
Fiat +0,2%. The day after the quarterly report, Jp Morgan raised the target price on the stock to 6,6 euros from 6, leaving the rating "neutral". News also from the USA where Lingotto won a partial victory last night in the process of taking over Chrysler entirely.
Above all, the stocks of the companies that communicated their accounts held the leading position on the Milan stock exchange: Autogrill +1,59%, A2A +2,19%, Parmalat -0,41% which also announced the purchase of the Brazilian Balkis.
The best quarterly? Enel Green Power -0,12% which closed the first half of 2013 with a group net result of 269 million, up 21,7% on the same period of 2012.
Exceptional accounts also for Brembo +0,37%: half-year net profit rises by 21,5% to 43,2 million euro on turnover up 8,6% to 762,8 million,
Opposed the bankers. Unicredit + 0,1% Intesa San Paolo -0,5% Mps Bank -1,3% B. Popular Milan-0,6%. Stands out the fall of B.Pop. Emilia Romagna -4,8%.
Big shot of Tip: +0,01%. In the afternoon it was announced that Qia, the Qatari investment fund, had acquired control of Galeries Lafayette for 1,6 billion, in which Gianni Tamburi's company has invested alongside Maurizio Borletti (who will remain at the helm of the business) and of Deutsche Bank real estate funds. Tip gets 42 million from the sale, the capital gain is 33 million.
