The conflicting signals from China are worrying the economy. This is the headline of a long report by the New York Times, which tries to decipher the state of health of the Asian giant, perhaps the figure that will most influence the next moves of the Fed. Meanwhile Ji Xingping, today a guest of Queen Elizabeth, announced that China will cover a third of the investment for the UK's first new generation nuclear power station.
The markets take note of the state of uncertainty with a cautious attitude: the opening of the European stock exchanges this morning is seen slightly lower in London, Paris and Frankfurt. In Asia, Shanghai and Hong Kong are down 0,4%, Shenzhen is up 0,2%. Tokyo +0,3%.
Oil prices are recovering after yesterday's crash. Rating agency Moody's cut its 2016 estimates for Brent from $57 to $53 a barrel and WTI from $52 to $48. Wall Street closed flat: Dow Jones index +0,08%, S&P 500 -0,07, 0,38% and Nasdaq +XNUMX%.
IBM AND MORGAN STANLEY KNOCKED OUT, OPRAH WINFREY MAKES WEIGHT WATCHERS FLY
Two heavyweights on the list go down after the quarterly. IBM fell 4,9% in post-stock trading after announcing heavier-than-expected losses that forced the company to lower its forecasts for the full year 2015.
Morgan Stanley loses 6,4% after announcing results for the third quarter of 2015 very disappointing. Net income fell to $1,02 billion from $1,69 billion in the same period in 2014. Like competitors Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley suffered sharp declines in trading earnings on bonds, currencies and on commodities, due to the strong volatility that characterized the markets this summer.
Among the companies that have already announced quarterly data (12% of the total) there is an average decline in profits of 4,6% compared to a year ago. However, the leap in the shares of Weight Watchers (+10%) after the purchase of 10% by Oprah Winfrey, the queen of US TV, a friend of the Obama family and champion, like Michelle, of a more healthy for Americans.
MILAN +0,4%. THE SPREAD CLOSE TO 100 PB
Yesterday the European markets closed in no particular order: in Milan the Ftse Mib index rose by 0,4%. Frankfurt also rose (+0,5%) while Paris closed unchanged. London lost 0,5%.
The price lists are already tuned to the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. Few expect concrete moves as early as Thursday's meeting, but Mario Draghi is expected to be able to give a clear indication on the acceleration of Qe by the end of the year, as the Austrian member of the bank, Ewald Nowotny, has already hinted.
The confirmation comes from the performance of the government bond market. The 1,6-year BTP trades at around 104%, at its lowest for over five months. The spread is hovering around 100: the target of XNUMX basis points is within reach again.
WAITING FOR FERRARI, BRUSSELS FINES THE "OLD" FIAT
On the eve of Ferrari D-day, Fiat Chrysler advanced by 1,7%. The parent company Exor is doing even better (+2,9%), suggested by Mediobanca as the most effective way to exploit the race of the Reds.
The wait is over: tonight the price of Ferrari's IPO will be announced, which will kick off tomorrow with the debut of the title on Wall Street under the banner Race. Reservations have largely exceeded the offer, so the price could rise beyond 52 dollars, the maximum of the range (48-52) already indicated. In the updated prospectus delivered to the SEC, the company estimates that it will be able to achieve net profits of between 93 and 96 million euros in the third quarter of the year, an increase of around 60-66% compared to the same period of 2014 .
Also tomorrow, however, the "old" Fiat will be called upon to pay a hefty fine (around 200 million euros) at the end of the EU investigations into tax avoidance through agreements with Luxembourg. According to the Financial Times, Fiat and Starbucks will be the first companies to be punished.
DEI MORATTI'S RUSSIAN PARTNER SELLS 9%. SALES WIDESPREAD ON SAIPEM
Big move in energy stocks. The Russian Rosneft has announced the placement with an accelerated book building operation of approximately 85,5 million Saras shares, equal to 8,99% of the share capital. The sale is part of a portfolio management and optimization program necessitated by the oil environment.
However, the Russian group intends to keep its remaining 12% in the company and thus maintain its presence on the board. On the basis of the agreements with UBS, responsible for the placement, Rosneft will not sell any other Saras shares for a period of 180 days from the completion of the operation.
Saipem closed yesterday down 2,5% at 8,10 euros in the wake of rumors about the restructuring of the company which, due to the exit from the protection of the current parent company Eni, needs around 7 billion euros: 3,5, XNUMX should be raised through a capital increase, the others will be made available by a pool of banks.
The terms of the loan are still vague as much will depend on the rating that Saipem will obtain: it currently has none because it has always been the parent company Eni that has made the credit available. The lending banks would have asked for guarantees both from Eni, which is destined to be heavily diluted with the capital increase, and from the new incoming shareholder, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti.
Eni -0,9%, Tenaris -2,7%. Among utilities, A2A +1,5%. The company has reached an agreement on the governance of the joint venture with Montenegro. Enel -0,2%, Enel Green Power +1,6%.
REBOUNCE OF TELECOM, METROWEB STARTS AGAIN
At Piazza Affari, Telecom Italia stood out with a +3,1%, a rise that has the flavor of a rebound, after last week the company's prices fell overall by 5%. Since the beginning of the year, Telecom Italia boasts a positive performance of 20%. Yesterday the company issued a press release to announce that negotiations have resumed for a possible alliance with Metroweb which belongs to the F2i and Fsi funds, as widely anticipated by the newspapers.
MPS AND CARIGE KNOCK ON THE CITY. EXPLOIT OF MEDIOBANCA
Yesterday was also the day of the resurrection of Deutsche Bank: +3,7% after the therapy announced by the new CEO John Cryant. The presence of German executives is greatly reduced on the new board of the banking group.
In the meantime, the doors of the City are reopening for the Italian banks already under observation. Monte Paschi (+1,7%) has mandated a group of banks to manage the issue of a guaranteed bond in euro, for a benchmark amount, with a six-year term (January 2022).
Meanwhile, less than a year after the failure of the European stress tests and more than two years after the last issue, Banca Carige returns to the bond market not without difficulty with a 'long' five-year covered bond.
The Bank, which many see as a purchase target in the next phase of mergers in Italy, has placed a guaranteed bond in January 2021, for 500 million euros, collecting orders for exactly the amount issued. The Bank of Italy also intervened in the operation with a purchase quota envisaged by the Qe-
Mediobanca also shone in Piazza Affari (yesterday +2,3%) after the anticipation that the group's retail division (CheBanca!) should close the June 2015-June 2016 fiscal year, breaking even.
Agreement +0,7% after the approval of the transition from the dual governance system to the one-tier Anglo-Saxon type. Unicredit -0,1% and Banco Popolare +1,6%. In asset management, Azimut shines (+2,7%) which has completed a new acquisition (the fifth) in Australia. Mediolanum +0,8%, Banca Generali +1,9%.
RENZI'S VISIT IS GOOD FOR DANIELI (+4%)
The Luxury sector is recovering: Ferragamo +0,3%, Luxottica +1,5%, Moncler +1,2%. Among industrialists, Buzzi (+2,5%), Prysmian (-0,1%) and Finmeccanica (-0,3%) did well.
Excellent performance by Danieli (+6%): the day after the investor day, which was also attended by Matteo Renzi, Kepler Cheuvreux raised the judgment to Buy from Hold, bringing the target price to 21 euros from the previous level of 19 euros. With yesterday's increase, the share returns to the levels of last August 4th and marks an increase of 12,5% from the low of September 24th (17,17 euros). Year-to-date performance is down 6%.
