Violent declines in Asia as markets reopen. The Tokyo Stock Exchange fell -1,2%, held back by the rise in the yen, but the epicenter of the sell-off was Shanghai, down 2,5% along with the Hong Kong real estate index. In fact, generating pessimism is the news that for the first time real estate prices in China are falling in 69 of the 70 main cities, and that the phenomenon is causing a tightening of loans to the economy.
Therefore, the risk of deflation is also felt in Beijing, one of the hot topics discussed at the G20 in Sydney, as Mario Draghi himself said: ""We are aware of the risk of deflation and we are ready to move if the situation worsens". So Mario Draghi in Sydney, at the end of the g20. The statement by the president of the ECB has rekindled attention to the decisions of the bank meeting in Frankfurt on 6 March: on the table a new drop in rates or the choice of unconventional measures against which Jens Weidman has already sided: "If it is a question of increasing liquidity, better a stop to the sterilization of bond purchases rather than the introduction of new measures”. In short, we are moving towards a liquidity injection of 175 billion (the frozen reserves in the ECB are worth the purchases of peripheral bonds), but it will be difficult for Draghi to go further.
This morning Brussels will publish the data on inflation for January, very important for understanding how real the danger of deflation is in the Old Continent. Draghi will visit Angela Merkel in Berlin on Wednesday.
TREASURY AUCTIONS: TOMORROW FIRST TEST FOR THE GOVERNMENT
Test this morning on the Stock Exchange for Matteo Renzi. But the first test for the premier and the new economy minister Pier Carlo Padoan will take place tomorrow with the end-of-month Treasury auctions, in an atmosphere warmed by the statements of Graziano Del Rio in a TV interview on the increase in taxation on government bonds. In the evening, the Palazzo Chigi press office was forced to clarify: "The horizon of the government is that of a reduction in the tax burden through a remodulation of financial income and taxes on labour". Renzi himself will speak on the subject today.
Tomorrow the Treasury will place Ctz at 24 months (2-2,5 billion) and Btpi at 5 years (0,5-1 billion). Wednesday will be the turn of the 6-month Treasury bonds (8,5 billion) against maturing bonds of 9,775 billion. Finally, Thursday is the turn of the Btp and the CcTeu (7-8 billion).
The outlook for eurozone debt remains positive, both domestically and in the eurozone. On Friday, the yield on the 10-year BTP closed the day at 3,5% with the spread with the Bund at 193, down by two basis points. Also on Friday, Moody's upgraded Spain's rating from Baa3 to Baa2 The upgrade, according to an official note, is linked to the "rebalancing of the economy and the progress of structural reforms".
An auction of 12-month German government bonds (2,5 bid) is scheduled for today.
The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as soon as the unemployment rate hits 6,5%. This was stated by James Bullard, president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed. According to the banker, full employment in the United States will be reached when the unemployment rate is 6%. Bullard also confirmed the argument that the weakness in recent macroeconomic data is related to bad weather.
BLACROCK IN INTESA: THE USA LIKES BANKING IN ITALY
In the spotlight Banca Intesa (+1,2% in the week) after Blackrock jumped to second place among shareholders behind the Compagnia di San Paolo. The advance of the asset management giant, which already boasts 5% in Unicredit and Ubi (the total investment in the sector is over 3,2 billion) is the tip of the iceberg of the big bet on the recovery of Italian banks . Over the last year, the market value of foreign equity investments rose from 19,7 to 42 billion, or 46% of the total capitalization of listed institutions equal to 91 billion. Compared to January 2013, both the total capitalization increased (+48% compared to the 60 billion at the time) and the percentage of international investors (31%). The most consistent presence is from US operators (600 entities for a total of 20 billion twice as much as the previous year).
DUEL IN CARIGE, MANEUVERS IN BPM
Hot week for bank capital increases. Great movement in Bpm (+ 3% during the week, the best stock in the sector) awaiting the green light for the 500 million operation. Raffaele Mincione, a 7% shareholder, took the field declaring his willingness to subscribe to his share and to go further as long as there is a change in the governor: management board of 5 to 7 members (majority shareholders of capital), board of surveillance of 190 to 13 members.
The situation in Carige is hot. The board of directors is meeting today, supported by the Bank of Italy, to accelerate next autumn by 800 million, to be implemented by March. The top management of the Foundation also meets, today with 46,3%, with the aim of imposing a postponement of the operation.
UTILITY, ELECTRIC SHOPPING FOR A2A AND IREN
Busy week for utilities. At the top of the Ftse Mib is A2A +8,55%, on the rise after the preliminary accounts for the year: investors liked the drop in debt, a result of less than 3,9 billion euros, an improvement of 0,5, 2012 billion euro compared to 4,4 (5 billion euro) following the positive generation of cash flow. In the spring, the municipalities of Milan and Brescia will place XNUMX% of the capital. Finally, the hypothesis of an offer for the Terni hydroelectric plant owned by E.on.
Hera is also on the rise (from 1,78 to 1,85 euros in the last five sessions) after the promotion of Equita Sim and Goldman Sachs: excellent prospects for the waste collection sector. Meanwhile, the mayor of Alessandria, a municipality that controls over 70% of the multiservice Amag, has opened the merger of the company with Iren, even if the procedure to follow will be that of a public tender.
TELECOM, NOW BETTING ON TIM BRASIL-GTV
Still in evidence Telecom Italia +3,5% driven by the rumors on the hypothesis of a merger between Tim Brasil and Gvt, a subsidiary of Vivendi, which would give rise to a strong competitor in both fixed and mobile. This seems to be the solution most appreciated by the government of President Dilma Roussef, contrary to the solution chosen by Telefonica: a stew that would reduce the local telephone operators from four to three.
CEO Marco Patuano, after his trip to Brazil, seems to have broken his doubts. A meeting has already been held with Vincent Bolloré, president of Vivendi and shareholder growing from 6 to 8% in Mediobanca.
TODAY THE CONTI MONCLER ARRIVE
Operators await with curiosity the publication of Moncler's 2013 results +2,88% on Friday. It will be an opportunity to review the judgments after the roaring debut and the subsequent descent of the title. Among the most important boards of the week, Snam and Luxottica stand out, the first time by Andrea Guerra after the no to Renzi's entry into the government.
OIL: THE BLACK JERSEY GOES TO TENARIS
In the oil equipment sector, Saipem shines +4,5%, second best stock of the week thanks to the interest of two Norwegian operators for a stake in the capital of the subsidiary Eni. On the contrary, the black jersey of the Ftse / Mib belongs to Tenaris (-10%). The company closed the year with net profit up 7% to 1,574 billion but weighs the negative outlook for 2014, after the US Commerce Department did not accept the requests of US producers (including the subsidiary of the Rocca group) against the alleged dumping by South Korea.
REMEDIATION, DISPUTE WITH BIZZI CLOSED
After the announcement of Tom Barrack and Luigi Zunino's offer on Risanamento, another novelty arrives. The company closed the agreement with Davide Bizzi on the reclamation of the former Falck area of Sesto San Giovanni. The agreement foresees that Risanamento will contribute up to 80 million to the higher-than-expected reclamation works. Bizzi, for his part, will pay the last 60 million for the purchase of the area. Basically a round game with a positive balance of 20 million for the real estate developer. Meanwhile, the banks seem willing to say no to Zunino's offer.
THE NUMBERS OF THE WEEK
Wall Street Friday Wall Street ended Friday slightly lower after earlier housing data came in below expectations. The week closed with a slight rise for the S&P index +0,5%, the Dow Jones +0,83% and the Nasdaq +0,7%. Wall Street's stability, in a week marked by some negative economic data, conditioned by bad weather, owes much to the role of Japanese quantitative easing, reiterated by the Boj. During the week, the Nikkei closed with a rise of 3,85% with very strong volatility.
Dominating the scene of the week was the acquisition of WhatsApp by Facebook for 19 billion dollars. On Friday, the case of the day was Groupon, -16% after disappointing results: the first quarter of 2014 will close with an Ebitda of between 20 and 40 million dollars, against an average forecast by analysts of 96 million.
The overall index of the Stoxx600 European Stock Exchanges closed the week with a rise of 0,7% and the balance since the beginning of the year is +2,3%. On the previous Friday, Paris closed at +0,9%, Frankfurt -0,1%, Madrid -0,6%. The leap in the City stands out: London is asking for +2,6% in the wake of the boom in the economy driven by real estate. Piazza Affari unchanged.
