"The US economy is essentially out of the Great Recession and is poised for stronger growth and rebounding inflation." Word of Janet Yellen, speaking yesterday at the Economic Forum in Washington. “I can't wait to raise rates – she added – a move that will be seen as the decisive sign, a testament, of America's exit from the recession”, as indeed the Beige Book confirmed yesterday evening.
On the eve of the ECB meeting which today will announce the package of measures to revive the economy and inflation, the Fed president broke the delay: "If we had to postpone the start of the normalization of monetary policy even further, we would risk unbalancing the markets finances and push the economy into recession”.
CRUDE OIL SLIPS BELOW 40 DOLLARS
The confirmation of the forthcoming US squeeze had the effect of accelerating the drop in oil prices, already under pressure due to the imminence of Friday's OPEC summit. Iran has written to the other cartel countries arguing the need to reduce production to support prices. But Saudi Arabia has already reiterated its no to the proposal.
As a consequence, oil closed today's session in New York below 40 dollars a barrel for the first time since last August 26th. The January contract slipped 4,6%, 1,91 dollars, to 39,94 dollars a barrel. Already weighed down by an unexpected increase in US inventories for the tenth week in a row, oil has indeed widened the declines after the words of the governor of the Federal Reserve and even more after the release of the Beige Book. This morning in Asia, Brent rose to 40,13 dollars a barrel.
WALL STREET AND ASIA DOWN. BRAZIL LIVE
The US currency has reached a new high for the year. The dollar index, calculated on the average of the six most traded currencies, rose by 0,72%. The euro is trading at 1,0593 this morning. The yield on the two-year T-Bond rose to 0,94% (from 0,41% in January). The Stock Exchanges are already adapting to the new market conditions. Wall Street closed down: Dow Jones -0,89%, S&P 500 -1,10%, Nasdaq -0,64%. Same script in Asia: Tokyo -0,3%, the Asia Pacific index lost 0,6% in the middle of the session. Operators are waiting for Mario Draghi.
The openings of the European Stock Exchanges will also reflect the caution of the markets, already tuned in to the press conference of the president of the ECB, starting at 14.30pm. Futures thus signal a weak start: London -30 points to 6.391; Paris -33 bp to 4873; Frankfurt -71 bp to 11.119.
In the meantime, the first losses are being felt in the Emerging economies. In the spotlight is Brazil, in full institutional crisis. Yesterday the Lower House of Parliament authorized the opening of the impeachment procedure for President Djilma Roussef. In the meantime, car sales are collapsing (-34%). Btg Pactual, a shareholder of Mps, in which Generali holds a share in exchange for the sale of Bsi, was relegated to junk title by S&P.
BUSINESS PLACE -0,1%. THE SPREAD DOWN TO 91
On the eve of day X, caution dominated the session of the European lists. In Milan, the FtseMib index fell by 0,1%, the Paris Stock Exchange also lost 0,1%, Frankfurt -0,6%. The BTP strengthened with the 1,38-year yield falling to 1,12% (the historic low is 91%, recorded last March). The spread with the Bund is XNUMX basis points.
MEDIOBANCA BUYED BARCLAYS ITALIA
Mediobanca (+0,2%) acquired the Italian branches of Barclays, which is now starting to exit the markets of continental Europe. The Barclays network, with 90 branches and 600 employees, will merge into Che Banca! confirming the diversification strategy from the traditional investment bank activity of Piazzetta Cuccia. The official announcement of the operation will be communicated during the day.
ANALYST PROMOTES POSTE ITALIANE
The banks moved yesterday in no particular order: Intesa fell by 0,4%, Monte Paschi -1,4%, Unicredit -1%. Pop. Milano (+0,7%) and Mediobanca (+0,2%) were positive. Mediolanum has risen (+1%), which has finally reached an agreement with the Revenue Agency, to which it will pay 120 million euros to settle a tax dispute. The amount is already set aside in the group's financial statements.
In great evidence Poste Italiane (+1,9%) which scored new highs after the positive recommendations of the main brokers. Among these, Ubs (Buy, target 8 euros), Kepler-Cheuvreux (Buy, target 8 euros), Citigroup (Buy, target 8 euros) and Mediobanca (Outperform, target 8,50 euros). Goldman Sachs (Neutral, target 7,80 euros), Bofa-Merrill Lynch (Neutral, target 7,50 euros) and Credit Suisse (Neutral, target 6,60 euros) are more cautious.
Generali fell yesterday by 0,6%, UnipolSai -0,9%.
TELECOM, EVEN GLASS LEWIS AGAINST VIVENDI
Telecom Italia was down (-1,9%) on the last day in which shares could be bought to participate in the mid-December shareholders' meeting which promises to be hot. Proxy adviser Glass Lewis also suggested a vote against Vivendi's request to increase the number of directors and appoint four of his representatives.
Glass Lewis writes that the main problem is that with four representatives on the board, Vivendi's presence will exceed its share, by virtue of the presence of Tarak Ben Ammar, already on the board but also a director of Vivendi, who carries the French group's share in the board at 23%, higher than its stake in the post-conversion capital of savings, about 14%.
THEY HOLD THE OILS. STEEL COLLAPSES (ARCELOR -8%)
The prices of oil stocks in Piazza Affari do not reflect the declines in crude oil that unleashed on the US markets in the evening. Eni closed up (+0,7%). The changes of Tenaris (-0,5%) and Saipem (-0,37%) were modest.
The drop in other raw materials, starting with iron ore, was much more violent. ArcelorMittal, the world's leading steel producer, listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, fell by 8% after forecasts that the price of steel will fall further in 2016. Enel rose by 0,3%, Terna +0,4 %.
YOOX IN THE STARS THANKS TO CYBER MONDAY
The rise in luxury stocks continued yesterday: Yoox gained 4,9% after announcing that sales over the fateful Thanksgiving Day weekend rose by 50% over the same period in 2014. the new all-time high at 35,35 euros, surpassing the previous record of 35,09 euros dating back to January 2014.
Last night, the company announced that between Thursday and Monday, the long Thanksgiving weekend, sales soared: they were up 50% over the same period a year earlier. More than 40% of orders came from mobile phones or tablets. Ferragamo (+1,8%) and Moncler (+3,6%) did well yesterday.
FCA SLOWS DOWN DESPITE THE SALES BOOM
Fiat Chrysler marks a drop of 0,8% despite the excellent data on November registrations in Italy, a market that accounts for 10% of group sales. Orders also went up by 20%, an increase that suggests an accelerating closure of 2015.
Among other industrialists, StM +0,9%, Finmeccanica -0,6%. Enel rose by 0,3%, Terna +0,4%.
