Slow-motion start of the Asian stock exchanges. The Asia Pacific lists are down slightly. Tokyo rose by 0,2%, awaiting the results of the meeting of the Central Bank which should confirm the purchases of securities on the market. The exception is Shanghai (+1%). The index is close to the highs of 2009. Here too, purchases are linked to the next expansive moves by the central bank. The euro is just above 1,05 against the dollar. In the opening of the markets it slipped.
But the global economic spotlight is already focused on the Federal Reserve meeting. Traders will be paying close attention to the words of the central bank's statement at the end of the monetary committee meeting on Wednesday evening. If the word "patient waiting" no longer appears in connection with the rise in US interest rates, it will mean that the Fed is preparing to increase the cost of money, slightly, in June or, at the latest, in October, as a another lexical invention.
GOLDMAN: EURO AT 0,80 IN 2017. DRAGHI REPLIES AT BUBA
Since the beginning of 2015, 24 central banks have lowered rates or adopted expansionary monetary measures. South Korea and Thailand cut rates during the week, preceded by Australia, Singapore and India. The latest in chronological order was Russia which last Friday cut its discount rate to 14%. In the next few days it will be Norway's turn. Meanwhile in Turkey Erdogan has defined as "enemies of the country" those who, like the governor of the central bank, do not intend to lower the cost of money.
Also not to be overlooked is the meeting of the Swiss National Bank during the week, the first since the decision to decouple the franc from the euro. Meanwhile, tonight Mario Draghi will speak: it will be an opportunity to respond to the Bundesbank which is already asking for a step back from Qe.
VOTE IN ISRAEL, LESS TAXES IN LONDON
Other matches, both financial and geopolitical, will have great importance during the week. The tug of war between the Eurogroup and Greece is proceeding alternately. Spotlights turned on Tuesday on the elections in Israel, decisive for the development of the negotiations in Geneva on Iranian nuclear power, the last occasion for confrontation in Washington between the White House and the Republican majority. On Wednesday, George Osborne will present the latest finance law to the Commons before the May elections. It will be the occasion to announce tax cuts after the years of austerity.
BAGS, HEAD TO HEAD FRANCORTE-MILAN
The first week of QE has rewarded the Eurozone stock exchanges supported by the purchases of the ECB and national banks. The Dax of Frankfurt, at its all-time high, and Piazza Affari lead the ranking of increases with a gain of around 2015% since the beginning of 20. In the last week Milan grew by 1,24%. The Italian Stock Exchange remains far from both the absolute highs (-54%, reached on March 10, 2000) and the May 2007 peak (-48%) but has recovered 2012% from the lows of June 71.
Excellent performance in Paris (+17%). More detached Madrid (+7%), held back by the uncertainty of the political situation: the growth of consensus of Podemos, a party of the Spanish radical left inspired by the Tsipras movement in Greece, is not appreciated by foreign investors. Modest performance in London +2%. Japanese Qe, stimulated by Abenomics, supported the Japanese Stock Exchange (Nikkei +10%), at its highest level since 2000.
WALL STREET SETS THE TIME. BRAZIL SHAKES
On the contrary, the prospect of a rate hike by the Fed has significantly slowed down the march of US stock markets: since the beginning of 1015, the Dow Jones has fallen by 1%, the S&P 500 by 0,7%. Only the Nasdaq, thanks to pharma stocks and Apple, rises by 2,3%. Above all, the revaluation of the dollar influenced the markets: for an investor from Euroland, the Dow Jones figure becomes +14% if we take into account the devaluation of the dollar against the euro. There were $33,6 billion in divestments from US equity funds in February. At the same time, subscriptions to European equity funds increased by 33,6 billion.
The massive fall in the Brazilian stock market (-4%) should also be noted: complicating Bovespa's march, in addition to the tensions on interest rates, are the repercussions of the bribe scandal (Petrobras) which is spreading like wildfire to the entire political class local.
CAR IN POLE POSITION. FCA LOOKS AT GM
Among the stock market tests of the week, the check on the state of health of the European automotive sector stands out, one of the sectors blessed by quantitative easing. The Geneva Motor Show confirmed the strength of high-end manufacturers, ready to invade the lower segments. The results of BMW and Porsche will be announced during the week. In the spotlight, however, Fiat Chrysler will once again be +4,6% on Friday, for the first time above the 15 euro threshold for the first time since 1998 with a final price of 15,60 euro. Since the beginning of 2015, the stock has gained 62%.
While awaiting the placement of a Ferrari stake (between 10 and 20%) at a valuation "much higher than 7 billion", as Marchionne himself requests, the topic of the new alliances arriving for the group is taking center stage. Marchionne has denied the Volkswagen track and cooled the one that leads to PSA. The US hypotheses are warmer: in particular GM, which has just joined the requests of the shareholder funds. Alliances, Marchionne had said, will be inevitable to resist pressure from hedge and activists.
ENI, PROOF OF APPEAL AFTER THE THUD
Eni tries to raise its head after the sharp fall on Friday: -4,6%, to 15,58 after having touched a minimum of 15,15 euros. The fall was caused by the announcement that the 2015 dividend will be 0,80 euro, from 1,12 euro in 2014. A cut that took more than one broker by surprise: Mediobanca expected a cut to 1 euro. Some analysts aimed for confirmation. Furthermore, the business plan for 2018 envisages an average annual growth in hydrocarbon production of 3,5%, starting from 1,598 million barrels a day at the end of 2014.
Eni will sell assets for 8 billion euros over the plan period and will reduce investments by 17%. Minority interests in the fields of Mozambique, Congo and Angola will be sold, plus the residual interests in Galp and mature assets in the North Sea and in the Gulf of Mexico. The buyback plan has been suspended.
MARKET MOVER. ENEL, MPS AND FINMECCANICA
Among the events of the week, the presentation of Enel's business plan stands out, scheduled for March 20 in London, the day after the approval of the 2014 accounts. The electricity giant's ordinary net profit will be confirmed at around 3 billion on which it will be calculated the dividend. But the write-downs decided by CEO Francesco Starace will weigh on the group's net result. In fact, the write-down of assets in the order of at least 1-2 billion is expected, in line with what decided by the competitors E.On and Gdf (4,5 and 2 billion respectively), after acknowledging that there is no forthcoming recovery of consumption. The Finmeccanica board meeting is also scheduled for Wednesday.
Tomorrow the board of the Monte Paschi Foundation will meet to approve the majority list for the new rabbit in view of the mid-April meeting which will approve the capital increase for 3 billion to be carried out between May and June. The list will also include the name of Alessandro Profumo who has accepted a "term appointment". In fact, the banker will leave Siena after the capital increase has been carried out.
MILAN FAIR UNDER FIRE IN BUSINESS SQUARE
A fiery start is announced for Fiera Milano. The week was forced to postpone the approval of the financial statements in the face of the request of the auditors to devalue the value of the subsidiary Fiera Milano Media by such a huge figure as to cause a loss of more than a third of the capital.
The Fiera Milano Foundation, which holds 62% of the capital, "expressed - reads a note - strong perplexity and amazement at this sudden decision by the subsidiary Fiera Milano which evidently reflects a more serious income statement situation than analysts forecast". The shareholder announces a "vigorous" attitude, hoping that the directors "put an end to the situation of uncertainty without delay".
Strong words that are not enough to dispel the feeling of a light governance that has allowed the progressive impoverishment of assets: from 70,7 million at the consolidated level for the year at the end of 2011 to 37,6 million at the end of 2013.
