US GDP should grow "at a moderate pace this year and next": +2,4% in 2012 and +2,6% the following year, after +1,7% in 2011. Consumption should remain at current levels, while the unemployment rate should fall to 8,1% in 2012 and 7,6% in 2013, from 8,9% in 2011. These are the data released today by the OECD, which underlines as in the USA, the economic recovery has “gained momentum and consumption has accelerated compared to the weakness of 2011”.
The unemployment rate "although still high, has fallen by almost 2% from the peaks of 2009". Despite these "substantial improvements", the recovery is "still weak" and "far from complete".
According to the International Organization, the American labor market "has been hit hard by the economic crisis" and "the effects remain serious", with an unemployment rate that has dropped significantly from the peaks reached during the recession, "but still remains high".
The main risk is that "long-term unemployment could become structural" because the length of periods of absence from work "is extremely high" and "many may have left the labor market altogether".
Participation in the labor market "has decreased" and could decrease further in the following years, which in the long run "could evolve into a structural" and "chronic" problem. For this reason, benefits for the unemployed should be "combined with a more active set of services to get people back to work" and strategies should be developed to increase skills and wages.
The debt crisis in Europe "continues to be a source of concern" for the United States "given the many connections between American financial institutions and European financial markets". Also factoring in a possible drop in aggregate demand due to fiscal consolidation, setback risks remain for the US economy in the near term. According to the OECD, the United States should therefore "continue to support the recovery and remain ready to intervene in the event that negative effects materialize".
