In the second semester the Italian economy will not grow. These are the forecasts of the OECD, which in its latest report estimates for our GDP even a contraction of 0,1% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which will be followed by a specular growth of 0,1% in the last three months of 2011. The Italian numbers are lower than the G7 average, so the Parisian institution expects a +1,6% of GDP in the third quarter and +0,2% in the fourth.
"The risks of a period of negative growth ahead of us have increased," warns OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan. In any case, the maneuver approved yesterday in Italy contains "various measures that go in the right direction", such as the constitutional obligation to keep the budget in balance, the equalization of the retirement age for women and the abolition of the provinces, which "a once implemented it will allow many savings”.
For the United States, a +1,1% is estimated between July and September and a +0,4% between October and December. Surprisingly, Germany keeps us company in Europe, which after a 2,6% increase in GDP in the third quarter should suffer a 1,4% contraction in the fourth.
As for the debt crisis in the eurozone, according to the Parisian institution "it could intensify again" after the "brusque widening" of the Italian and Spanish spreads prompted the ECB to massive purchases of government bonds of the two countries.
Finally, unemployment. The high jobless rate "risks taking root" and "labor market reforms are needed to prevent cyclical unemployment from becoming structural".
