After +0,1% in the fourth quarter certified this morning by Istat,OECD disseminates new estimates on the trend of the Italian GDP, which in first quarter 2014 should grow by 0,7%, and then slow down again to +0,1% between April and June. The trend would therefore be weaker than that forecast by Istat, which expects growth of +0,7% over the entire year.
As for the whole Eurozone, according to the OECD, GDP will expand by 1,9% in the first quarter (after +1,2% at the end of 2013), which will then decrease to +1,4% in the second.
A trend which not even escapes the Germany, which will see growth jump to +3,7% between January and March (after +1,5% in the fourth quarter), to then slow down to +2,5% between April and June.
For the countries of the G7 taken together, the OECD estimates +2,2% in the first quarter and +2% in the second.
In any case, the update released today by the Organization is only partial: the complete data on 214 and 2015 will only be available on 6 May with the new version of the Economic Outlook.
In general, the OECD notes that some of the major risk factors for growth have eased, while others have remained and even new ones have been created. Furthermore, in the euro area the recovery remains less solid than elsewhere and "the level of monetary policy stimulus can be maintained or even increased further": in short, the consolidation of the public finances must continue, "but the progress already achieved implies that in many cases the pace of consolidation may be slower this year than last year, thus reducing the brake on economic recovery”.
As for theprice trend, the OECD warns of the risk that "deflation will take hold in some peripheral countries of the euro area". For this reason, the Organization believes that "the level of monetary stimulus can be maintained or even increased".
